School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Sci Rep. 2020 Feb 21;10(1):3193. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-59947-8.
The Pacific Island countries have a substantial socio-economic dependency on fisheries. Skipjack tuna is one of the most important species in the Western Central Pacific (WCP) and its catches in this region exhibit a spatio-temporal variability influenced by ocean conditions, mainly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study investigates the relationship between skipjack tuna catch amounts and environmental variables in the equatorial Pacific during 1990-2014, and evaluates the potential predictability of the catches based on their statistical relationship. A series of regressed and reconstructed spatial patterns of upper-ocean temperature, salinity, currents and precipitation represent ENSO-like variability, and their principal component time series are used to estimate the predictability of skipjack tuna catches in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). ENSO-like variability depicted from 100 m temperature and 5 m salinity in the equatorial Pacific exhibit a significant predictability for the annual catch amount in the FSM for several years with a training period of > 20 years. This suggests that the subsurface temperature or near surface salinity can be a better predictor of ecosystem variability than widely used sea surface temperature. Applications of this result to other species could have broad implications for the fishery industry in the WCP.
太平洋岛屿国家在社会经济上高度依赖渔业。金枪鱼是中西太平洋（WCP）最重要的物种之一，该地区金枪鱼的捕捞量存在时空变化，主要受海洋条件影响，特别是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）。本研究调查了 1990-2014 年期间赤道太平洋金枪鱼捕捞量与环境变量之间的关系，并根据它们的统计关系评估了捕捞量的潜在可预测性。一系列回归和重建的上层海洋温度、盐度、海流和降水空间模式代表了 ENSO 样变异性，其主要成分时间序列用于估计密克罗尼西亚联邦（FSM）金枪鱼捕捞量的可预测性。从赤道太平洋 100 米温度和 5 米盐度得出的 ENSO 样变异性，对 FSM 的年捕捞量具有显著的可预测性，其训练期超过 20 年。这表明，与广泛使用的海面温度相比，次表层温度或近表层盐度可能是更好的生态系统变异性预测指标。这一结果在其他物种中的应用可能对 WCP 的渔业产生广泛影响。
