Division of Disease Control.
Division of Epidemiology, New York City Department of Health and Hygiene, Queens, New York.
AIDS. 2020 Jun 1;34(7):1075-1080. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000002510.
Early diagnosis of HIV is important for the prevention of ongoing transmission and development of HIV-related illness. The purpose of this study is to develop an outcome indicator to monitor the progress in early HIV diagnosis.
Persons diagnosed with HIV in New York City and their first CD4 test results were used to estimate the distribution of HIV diagnosis delay, based on a CD4 count depletion model. The distribution was then used to estimate the probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition, which is the number of cases diagnosed in a given calendar year for which diagnosis occurred within 1 year of acquisition divided by the number of incident cases in that calendar year.
In 2012-2016, the estimated annual probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition in New York City was 43.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 37.9-48.2%), 42.5% (95% CI: 36.8--48.3%), 42.8% (95% CI: 36.3--49.2%), 42.9% (95% CI: 35.4--50.3%), and 42.2% (95% CI: 33.1--51.2%), respectively.
National and local health jurisdictions should consider using this new outcome indicator, the probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition, to monitor their progress in early HIV diagnosis.
及早诊断 HIV 对于防止持续传播和 HIV 相关疾病的发展非常重要。本研究旨在开发一个结果指标，以监测早期 HIV 诊断的进展。
使用在纽约市诊断出 HIV 的患者及其首次 CD4 检测结果，基于 CD4 计数耗竭模型来估计 HIV 诊断延迟的分布。然后，利用该分布来估计在感染后 1 年内诊断出 HIV 的概率，即给定日历年内诊断出的病例数除以当年新发病例数。
2012 年至 2016 年，纽约市 HIV 感染后 1 年内诊断的估计年概率分别为 43.0%（95%置信区间：37.9-48.2%）、42.5%（95%置信区间：36.8-48.3%）、42.8%（95%置信区间：36.3-49.2%）、42.9%（95%置信区间：35.4-50.3%）和 42.2%（95%置信区间：33.1-51.2%）。
国家和地方卫生部门应考虑使用新的结果指标，即 HIV 感染后 1 年内诊断的概率，来监测其早期 HIV 诊断的进展。
