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何时对波动的野生动物种群进行疫苗接种:时机决定一切吗?

When to vaccinate a fluctuating wildlife population: Is timing everything?

作者信息

Schreiner Courtney L, Nuismer Scott L, Basinski Andrew J

机构信息

Department of Mathematics University of Idaho Moscow ID USA.

Department of Biological Sciences University of Idaho Moscow ID USA.

出版信息

J Appl Ecol. 2020 Feb;57(2):307-319. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.13539. Epub 2019 Dec 31.

Abstract

Wildlife vaccination is an important tool for managing the burden of infectious disease in human populations, domesticated livestock and various iconic wildlife. Although substantial progress has been made in the field of vaccine designs for wildlife, there is a gap in our understanding of how to time wildlife vaccination, relative to host demography, to best protect a population.We use a mathematical model and computer simulations to assess the outcomes of vaccination campaigns that deploy vaccines once per annual population cycle.Optimal timing of vaccination is an important consideration in animals with short to intermediate life spans and a short birthing season. Vaccines that are deployed shortly after the birthing season best protect the host population.The importance of timing is greater in wildlife pathogens that have a high rate of transmission and a short recovery period. Vaccinating at the end of the birthing season best reduces the mean abundance of pathogen-infected hosts. Delaying vaccination until later in the year can facilitate pathogen elimination. . Tuning wildlife vaccination campaigns to host demography and pathogen traits can substantially increase the effectiveness of a campaign. Our results suggest that, for a fluctuating population, vaccinating at, or shortly after, the end of the birthing season, best protects the population against an invading pathogen. If the pathogen is already endemic, delaying vaccination until after the birthing season is over can help facilitate pathogen elimination. Our results highlight the need to better understand and predict host demography in wildlife populations that are targeted for vaccination.

摘要

野生动物疫苗接种是管理人类、家畜和各种标志性野生动物群体中传染病负担的重要工具。尽管在野生动物疫苗设计领域已取得重大进展,但在如何根据宿主种群统计学来确定野生动物疫苗接种时间以最佳保护种群方面,我们的理解还存在差距。我们使用数学模型和计算机模拟来评估每年在种群周期内接种一次疫苗的疫苗接种运动的效果。对于寿命较短至中等且产仔季节较短的动物,疫苗接种的最佳时机是一个重要考虑因素。在产仔季节后不久接种疫苗能最好地保护宿主种群。对于传播率高且恢复期短的野生动物病原体,接种时间的重要性更大。在产仔季节结束时接种疫苗能最大程度降低病原体感染宿主的平均数量。将疫苗接种推迟到当年晚些时候有助于消除病原体。根据宿主种群统计学和病原体特征调整野生动物疫苗接种运动可大幅提高运动的有效性。我们的结果表明,对于波动的种群,在产仔季节结束时或结束后不久接种疫苗,能最好地保护种群免受入侵病原体的侵害。如果病原体已经流行,将疫苗接种推迟到产仔季节结束后有助于促进病原体的消除。我们的结果强调了更好地理解和预测目标接种疫苗的野生动物种群的宿主种群统计学的必要性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/773d/7043377/d9197ab838cd/JPE-57-307-g001.jpg

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