Postgraduate Programme in Veterinary Science, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Federal University of Mato Grosso FAVET - UFMT, 2367 Fernando Correa Avenue, Cuiabá, MT, 78060-900, Brazil; Federal Superintendence of Agriculture of the State of Mato Grosso, Cuiabá, MT, Brazil.
Federal Superintendence of Agriculture of the State of Mato Grosso, Cuiabá, MT, Brazil.
Prev Vet Med. 2020 Mar;176:104938. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2020.104938. Epub 2020 Feb 22.
Diseases that affect cattle represent obstacles to the development of livestock activity. Brucellosis is a significant such disease because it is transmissible, has a chronic nature, and causes health and economic damages to the herd and rural producer. Data from surveys performed in 2002 and 2014 were compared to identify the spatial distribution of bovine brucellosis and to evaluate clusters of outbreaks and areas of greater risk to have infected cattle in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The present study analyzed the data obtained in the aforementioned investigations with a statistical model based on a spatial point process called a generalized additive model (GAM). The analysis made it possible to identify the regions of highest and lowest risk in the state of Mato Grosso. Of the 1001 properties analyzed in 2002, 198 were in areas with high-odds ratio, and 121 were in a low-odds ratio area. Of the 1248 properties sampled in 2014, 119 were in a high-odds ratio area, and 162 were in a low-odds ratio area. Areas with high-odds ratio are more likely to have infected cattle and can be considered to be at higher risk for the disease. The results of the present study highlight the reduction in foci, prevalence, and its relationship with the spatial distribution of bovine brucellosis. The study results should help the official defense service of Mato Grosso direct its activities according to the profile of each region.
影响牛的疾病是畜牧业发展的障碍。布鲁氏菌病就是这样一种严重的疾病，因为它具有传染性、慢性特征，并会给畜群和农村生产者带来健康和经济损失。对 2002 年和 2014 年进行的调查数据进行了比较，以确定巴西马托格罗索州牛布鲁氏菌病的空间分布，并评估暴发的集群和感染牛的高风险区域。本研究用一种基于空间点过程的统计模型（广义加性模型）分析了上述调查中获得的数据。分析结果可以确定马托格罗索州的高风险和低风险区域。在 2002 年分析的 1001 个牧场中，有 198 个处于高优势比区域，121 个处于低优势比区域。在 2014 年抽样的 1248 个牧场中，有 119 个处于高优势比区域，162 个处于低优势比区域。高优势比区域更有可能有感染的牛，可以被认为是该病的高风险区域。本研究的结果强调了焦点、流行率的降低及其与牛布鲁氏菌病的空间分布的关系。研究结果应有助于马托格罗索州的官方防御服务根据每个区域的特点开展活动。
