School of Health Management & Information Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Health Services Management Centre, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
BMC Health Serv Res. 2020 Mar 6;20(1):186. doi: 10.1186/s12913-020-5023-z.
Determining the optimal number of hospital beds is a complex and challenging endeavor and requires models and techniques which are sensitive to the multi-level, uncertain, and dynamic variables involved. This study identifies and characterizes extant models and methods that can be used to determine the required number of beds at hospital and regional levels, comparing their advantages and challenges.
A systematic search was conducted using Web of Science, Scopus, Embase and PubMed databases, with the search terms hospital bed capacity, hospital bed need, hospital, bed size, model, and method.
Twenty-three studies met the criteria to be included in the review. Of these studies, a total of 11 models and 5 methods were identified, mainly designed to determine hospital bed capacity at the regional level. Common determinants of the required number of hospital beds in these models included demographic changes, average length of stay, admission rates, and bed occupancy rates.
There are no specific norms for the required number of beds at hospital and regional levels, but some of the identified models and methods may be used to estimate this number in different contexts. Moreover, it is important to consider alternative approaches to planning hospital capacity like care pathways to fix the limitations of "bed numbers".
确定最佳医院床位数量是一项复杂且具有挑战性的任务，需要使用对所涉及的多层次、不确定和动态变量敏感的模型和技术。本研究旨在确定和描述可用于确定医院和地区层面所需床位数量的现有模型和方法，并比较它们的优缺点。
使用 Web of Science、Scopus、Embase 和 PubMed 数据库进行系统检索，检索词包括医院床位容量、医院床位需求、医院、床位大小、模型和方法。
共有 23 项研究符合纳入标准。其中，共确定了 11 个模型和 5 种方法，主要用于确定地区层面的医院床位容量。这些模型中确定所需医院床位数量的常见决定因素包括人口变化、平均住院时间、入院率和床位占用率。
医院和地区层面所需床位数量没有特定的标准，但可以使用一些确定的模型和方法在不同情况下估计这个数量。此外，考虑替代方法来规划医院容量，如护理路径，以解决“床位数量”的局限性很重要。
