Gusmanov Rasul, Askarov Almir, Lukyanova Milyausha, Kovshov Vitaliy, Stovba Eugene
Department of Economics and Management, Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education "Bashkir State Agrarian University", Ufa 450076, Russia.
Department of Informatics and Economics, Birsk Branch of Federal State Budgetary Educational Establishment of Higher Education "Bashkir State University", Birsk 452450, Russia.
Scientifica (Cairo). 2020 Feb 20;2020:5195104. doi: 10.1155/2020/5195104. eCollection 2020.
The purpose of the study is to establish scientific rational for the use of the foresight methodology in the strategic planning of rural development. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the development of an algorithm for strategic planning of rural development based on the foresight methodology and by the formation of a set of practical recommendations for the use of foresight tools at the municipal level of management in rural areas. The paper states that modern foresight methodology is quite flexible and multifaceted. It can be widely applied at different hierarchical levels of management. In our research, we consistently analyzed foresight projects and programs used in the rural management and development forecasting. The use of a systematic approach in combination with foresight technologies allows developing strategic plans for the rural areas development from the perspective of improvement of their economic and social component. The research presents the foresight algorithm of the rural development strategic planning and its implementation mechanism at the municipal level. The main components of the foresight testing procedure of the rural areas economic development were determined on the example of such a classic agricultural region of the Russian Federation as the Republic of Bashkortostan. The results of a comprehensive foresight analysis of alternative scenarios of the rural development have been formed. We summarized that the foresight technologies should be used as a system tool for the formation and implementation of the strategy of the sustainable rural areas development. The main results of the study include summarizing the experience of foresight studies on the rural areas development; design of an algorithm of strategic planning of the rural areas development based on the foresight methodology; the formation of alternative scenarios of the rural areas development at the regional level.
本研究的目的是为农村发展战略规划中运用前瞻性方法确立科学依据。该研究的科学新颖性在于开发了一种基于前瞻性方法的农村发展战略规划算法，并形成了一套在农村地区市级管理层面使用前瞻性工具的实用建议。本文指出，现代前瞻性方法相当灵活且多面。它可广泛应用于不同管理层次。在我们的研究中，我们持续分析了农村管理与发展预测中使用的前瞻性项目和计划。运用系统方法结合前瞻性技术，能够从改善农村地区经济和社会构成的角度制定农村发展战略规划。本研究呈现了农村发展战略规划的前瞻性算法及其在市级层面的实施机制。以俄罗斯联邦的经典农业地区巴什科尔托斯坦共和国为例，确定了农村地区经济发展前瞻性测试程序的主要组成部分。形成了农村发展替代情景的综合前瞻性分析结果。我们总结得出，前瞻性技术应作为农村地区可持续发展战略形成与实施的系统工具。该研究的主要成果包括总结农村地区发展前瞻性研究的经验；设计基于前瞻性方法的农村地区发展战略规划算法；形成区域层面农村地区发展的替代情景。
