Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America.
Department of Statistics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2020 Mar 10;15(3):e0229978. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229978. eCollection 2020.
Concerned about potentially increased risk of neurodegenerative disease, several health professionals and policy makers have proposed limiting or banning youth participation in American-style tackle football. Given the large affected population (over 1 million boys play high school football annually), careful estimation of the long-term health effects of playing football is necessary for developing effective public health policy. Unfortunately, existing attempts to estimate these effects tend not to generalize to current participants because they either studied a much older cohort or, more seriously, failed to account for potential confounding. We leverage data from a nationally representative cohort of American men who were in grades 7-12 in the 1994-95 school year to estimate the effect of playing football in adolescent on depression in early adulthood. We control for several potential confounders related to subjects' health, behavior, educational experience, family background, and family health history through matching and regression adjustment. We found no evidence of even a small harmful effect of football participation on scores on a version of the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale (CES-D) nor did we find evidence of adverse associations with several secondary outcomes including anxiety disorder diagnosis or alcohol dependence in early adulthood. For men who were in grades 7-12 in the 1994-95 school year, participating or intending to participate in school football does not appear to be a major risk factor for early adulthood depression.
由于担心神经退行性疾病的潜在风险增加,一些健康专业人士和政策制定者提议限制或禁止青少年参与美式触身式橄榄球。鉴于受影响的人群庞大(每年有超过 100 万男孩参加高中橄榄球运动),为了制定有效的公共卫生政策,有必要仔细评估橄榄球运动对长期健康的影响。不幸的是,由于现有研究试图估计这些影响的方法往往无法推广到目前的参与者,因为它们要么研究了一个年龄更大的队列,要么更严重的是,未能考虑到潜在的混杂因素。我们利用来自美国男性的全国代表性队列的数据,这些男性在 1994-95 学年的 7-12 年级,来估计青少年时期踢足球对成年早期抑郁的影响。我们通过匹配和回归调整,控制了与受试者健康、行为、教育经历、家庭背景和家族健康史相关的几个潜在混杂因素。我们没有发现足球参与对流行病学研究中心抑郁量表(CES-D)评分有任何微小的有害影响的证据,也没有发现与几个次要结果(包括成年早期的焦虑障碍诊断或酒精依赖)有不良关联的证据。对于 1994-95 学年在 7-12 年级的男性来说,参与或打算参与学校橄榄球似乎不是成年早期抑郁的主要危险因素。