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基于伊朗西北部空间相关性分析预测头虱（:）感染发病率热点地区

Forecasting head lice (: ) infestation incidence hotspots based on spatial correlation analysis in Northwest Iran.

作者信息

Adham Davoud, Moradi-Asl Eslam, Abazari Malek, Saghafipour Abedin, Alizadeh Parisa

机构信息

Department of Public Health, School of Public Health, Ardabil University of Medical Sciences, Ardabil, Iran.

Arthropod Borne Diseases Research Center, Ardabil University of Medical Sciences, Ardabil, Iran.

出版信息

Vet World. 2020 Jan;13(1):40-46. doi: 10.14202/vetworld.2020.40-46. Epub 2020 Jan 6.

DOI:10.14202/vetworld.2020.40-46
PMID:32158149
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7020119/
Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIM

has been prevalent throughout the world, especially in developing countries among elementary students and societies with a weak socio-economic status. This study aimed to forecast head lice (: ) infestation incidence hotspots based on spatial correlation analysis in Ardabil Province, Northwest Iran.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective analytical study, all cases of head lice infestations who were confirmed by Centers for Disease Control office have been studied from 2016 to 2018. Head lice infestation incidence hotspots in the province should be detected based on general G statistics in ArcMap GIS10.4.1. Furthermore, MaxEnt.3.3.3 model was used for modeling the high-risk areas.

RESULTS

The prevalence rate of pediculosis was 14.90/100,000 populations. The general G statistics revealed that the head lice infestation in this study area has a high cluster pattern. The analysis showed that the Parsabad and Germi counties were identified as a head lice infestation incidence hotspots. Statistical and spatial analyses of head lice infestation incidence showed a significant positive correlation with head lice infestation incidence hotspots and the altitudes (15-500 m), annual temperature range (14-16.5°C), and slope and average diurnal temperature (12-18°C).

CONCLUSION

The results of this study showed that the most ecologically suitable areas of head lice occurrence were identified in two hotspots (Parsabad and Germi) in the Northern areas of Ardabil Province (Parsabad and Germi counties); in the borderline of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan.

摘要

背景与目的

头虱在全球普遍存在，尤其是在发展中国家的小学生群体以及社会经济地位薄弱的群体中。本研究旨在基于伊朗西北部阿尔达比勒省的空间相关性分析预测头虱（头虱属）感染发病热点地区。

材料与方法

在这项回顾性分析研究中，对2016年至2018年疾病控制中心办公室确诊的所有头虱感染病例进行了研究。应基于ArcMap GIS10.4.1中的一般G统计量检测该省头虱感染发病热点地区。此外，使用MaxEnt.3.3.3模型对头虱感染高风险地区进行建模。

结果

头虱病患病率为14.90/10万人口。一般G统计量显示，本研究区域的头虱感染具有高度聚集模式。分析表明，帕尔萨巴德县和杰尔米县被确定为头虱感染发病热点地区。头虱感染发病率的统计和空间分析显示，头虱感染发病热点地区与海拔（15 - 500米）、年温度范围（14 - 16.5°C）、坡度和平均日温差（12 - 18°C）之间存在显著正相关。

结论

本研究结果表明，头虱发生的最适宜生态区域位于阿尔达比勒省北部地区（帕尔萨巴德县和杰尔米县）的两个热点地区（帕尔萨巴德和杰尔米）；位于伊朗与阿塞拜疆共和国的边界处。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/6c81e817afda/Vetworld-13-40-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/fa05a43968d7/Vetworld-13-40-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/3b02a00dc869/Vetworld-13-40-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/50f1623cfaaa/Vetworld-13-40-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/72ac3972d84f/Vetworld-13-40-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/6c81e817afda/Vetworld-13-40-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/fa05a43968d7/Vetworld-13-40-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/3b02a00dc869/Vetworld-13-40-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/50f1623cfaaa/Vetworld-13-40-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/72ac3972d84f/Vetworld-13-40-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f87/7020119/6c81e817afda/Vetworld-13-40-g006.jpg

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