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伊朗中部一个流行地区皮肤利什曼病的风险地图绘制与态势分析:一项基于地理信息系统的调查

Risk Mapping and Situational Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in an Endemic Area of Central Iran: A GIS-Based Survey.

作者信息

Abedi-Astaneh Fatemeh, Hajjaran Homa, Yaghoobi-Ershadi Mohammad Reza, Hanafi-Bojd Ahmad Ali, Mohebali Mehdi, Shirzadi Mohammad Reza, Rassi Yavar, Akhavan Amir Ahmad, Mahmoudi Bagher

机构信息

Department of Communicable Disease, Deputy of Health, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran.

Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2016 Aug 30;11(8):e0161317. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0161317. eCollection 2016.


DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0161317
PMID:27574805
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5004885/
Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is among the top 10 infectious disease priorities in the world, and the leading cause of morbidity in Iran. The present study was conducted to assess the risk of CL, and to determine some epidemiological features of the disease in endemic areas of Qom Province in Central Iran during 2009 to 2013. METHODS: Data regarding human cases of the disease were obtained from the Qom Province Health Center, prepared and stored in a spatial database created in ArcGIS10.3. A total of 9 out of 212 Leishmania spp. positive slides taken in 2013 from patients residing in Qom city were examined using molecular methods and the species of Leishmania was identified by PCR-RFLP. Those 9 patients had no history of travel outside the city. Spatial analysis and clustering methods were applied to find major hot spots and susceptible areas for the establishment of novel foci of the disease. Transmission patterns were examined for spatial autocorrelation using the Moran's I statistical application, and for the clustering of high or low values using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics. RESULTS: During the period of study, a total of 1767 CL cases were passively reported in the area, out of which were 65% males and 35% females. The highest and lowest numbers of cases were reported in 2010 and 2013, respectively. Importantly, 979 cases were reported from urban areas, while the remainder came from rural areas. Leishmania major was detected as the causative agent of CL in the city of Qom. Remarkably, most patients recorded in Qom city were associated with a history of travel to the endemic areas of CL within the province, or to other endemic areas of the disease in Iran. Spatial distribution of CL cases revealed northeastern and southwestern quarters of the city were the major hot spots of the disease (P<0.05). Hot spot and CL transmission risk analysis across the province indicated that more than 40 villages were located in high and very high risk areas of CL transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the existence of hot spots (P<0.05) of CL in successive years in some quarters of Qom city, along with detection of L. major from the patients without a history of travel, there may be potential of local transmission of the disease within the city. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive study concerning the hot spots of CL in Qom city for curtailing the incidence of the disease in the city. The methodology and the results of this study is essential in serving as a yardstick for subsequent similar studies that will be carried out in other endemic areas of CL in Iran and providing an adequate tool for the establishment of a national database of cutaneous leishmaniasis.

摘要

引言:皮肤利什曼病(CL)位列全球十大重点传染病,是伊朗发病的主要原因。本研究旨在评估伊朗中部库姆省流行地区CL的发病风险,并确定该疾病的一些流行病学特征,研究时段为2009年至2013年。 方法:有关该疾病人类病例的数据来自库姆省卫生中心,整理后存储于在ArcGIS10.3中创建的空间数据库。2013年从库姆市居民采集的212份利什曼原虫属阳性玻片标本中,共9份采用分子方法进行检测,并通过PCR-RFLP鉴定利什曼原虫的种类。这9名患者均无出城旅行史。应用空间分析和聚类方法寻找该疾病新发病灶的主要热点地区和易感区域。使用莫兰指数统计应用程序对传播模式进行空间自相关检验,并使用Getis-Ord Gi*统计量对高值或低值聚类进行检验。 结果:在研究期间,该地区共被动报告1767例CL病例,其中男性占65%,女性占35%。病例数最高和最低的年份分别是2010年和2013年。重要的是,979例病例报告来自城市地区,其余来自农村地区。检测到大利什曼原虫是库姆市CL的病原体。值得注意的是,库姆市记录的大多数患者都有前往该省内CL流行地区或伊朗其他疾病流行地区的旅行史。CL病例的空间分布显示,该市的东北部和西南部地区是该疾病的主要热点地区(P<0.05)。对全省的热点地区和CL传播风险分析表明,40多个村庄位于CL传播的高风险和极高风险地区。 结论:由于库姆市部分地区连续多年存在CL热点地区(P<0.05),且在无旅行史的患者中检测到大利什曼原虫,该病在市内可能存在本地传播的可能性。因此,有必要针对库姆市CL热点地区开展全面研究,以降低该市的发病率。本研究的方法和结果对于作为伊朗其他CL流行地区后续类似研究的标准以及为建立全国皮肤利什曼病数据库提供适当工具至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e078/5004885/ab052418ebed/pone.0161317.g008.jpg
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