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本文引用的文献

1
The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) - China, 2020.2019新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情的流行病学特征 - 中国，2020年
China CDC Wkly. 2020 Feb 21;2(8):113-122.
2
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.实时预测和预报源自中国武汉的 2019-nCoV 疫情在国内和国际的潜在传播：一项建模研究。
Lancet. 2020 Feb 29;395(10225):689-697. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9. Epub 2020 Jan 31.
3
A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster.一个涉及 2019 年新型冠状病毒的家庭聚集性肺炎病例，提示存在人际传播：一项家庭聚集性研究。
Lancet. 2020 Feb 15;395(10223):514-523. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30154-9. Epub 2020 Jan 24.
4
Epidemic Models of Contact Tracing: Systematic Review of Transmission Studies of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome.接触者追踪的流行模型：严重急性呼吸综合征和中东呼吸综合征传播研究的系统综述
Comput Struct Biotechnol J. 2019 Jan 26;17:186-194. doi: 10.1016/j.csbj.2019.01.003. eCollection 2019.

新型冠状病毒爆发：为预防大流行提出问题。

New coronavirus outbreak: Framing questions for pandemic prevention.

机构信息

Scott P. Layne is emeritus professor in the Department of Epidemiology, UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA. Email:

James M. Hyman is the Evelyn and John G. Phillips Distinguished Professor in Mathematics in the School of Science and Engineering, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA. Email:

出版信息

Sci Transl Med. 2020 Mar 11;12(534). doi: 10.1126/scitranslmed.abb1469.

DOI:10.1126/scitranslmed.abb1469
PMID:32161107
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11000442/
Abstract

We need to understand and quantify the dominant variables that govern the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, rather than relying exclusively on confirmed cases and their geospatial spread.

摘要

我们需要了解和量化控制 SARS-CoV-2 爆发的主要变量，而不仅仅依赖于确诊病例及其地理空间传播。