Applied Meteorological Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, 33, Seohobuk-ro, Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, 63568, Republic of Korea.
Int J Biometeorol. 2020 Jul;64(7):1197-1205. doi: 10.1007/s00484-020-01893-1. Epub 2020 Mar 12.
To provide a simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for Seoul, Korea, we coupled a high-resolution climate simulation (25 m grid spacing) for an average heat day with the operational forecasting model (5 km grid spacing). Thereby, we accounted for the meso-scale weather conditions and local-scale air temperature induced by land cover and the urban heat island effect. Moreover, we estimated the impacts of heat events using heat-related mortality rate. Applying the simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for July and August 2016, we detected a substantial spatial variability in maximum air temperature and heat-related mortality rate in Seoul. The evaluation of simulated maximum air temperature compared to observations revealed a small deviation (MB = 0.11 K, RMSD = 1.40 K). Despite the limitation of using average conditions, it was an efficient way to identify particularly affected areas, neighbourhoods, and districts for releasing more location-specific heat-stress warnings.
为了给韩国首尔提供一个简单的高分辨率热应激预报，我们将平均热日的高分辨率气候模拟（25 米网格间距）与业务预报模型（5 公里网格间距）相结合。这样，我们就考虑到了中尺度天气条件和由土地覆盖和城市热岛效应引起的局部气温。此外，我们还使用与热有关的死亡率来估计热事件的影响。应用 2016 年 7 月和 8 月的简单高分辨率热应激预报，我们检测到首尔的最高气温和与热有关的死亡率存在显著的空间变异性。与观测相比，模拟的最高气温的评估显示出较小的偏差（MB=0.11 K，RMSD=1.40 K）。尽管使用平均条件存在局限性，但这是一种识别特别受影响的地区、社区和行政区以发布更具针对性的热应激警报的有效方法。
