College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, No. 967 Anning East Road, Lanzhou, Gansu Province, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 May;27(15):18044-18063. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-08284-4. Epub 2020 Mar 13.
It is urgent to explore the potential ecological carrying capacity (PECC) of regions where the study of ecological carrying capacity (ECC) is difficult to meet the real-world requirements of building an ecological civilization. In this study, classification and regression tree models were applied for estimating potential normalized difference vegetation index (PNDVI) based on climate variables and training data of actual NDVI. Then, potential net primary productivity (PNPP) was simulated by using Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and PNDVI. On this basis, PECC of 31 provinces in China was estimated using the improved ecological footprint model and compared results with actual condition in 2015. The results showed the following: per capita PECC presented immense spatial differences, with high values in the northwest and low values in the southeast. The total PECCs of eight provinces were far greater than their actual total ECCs in 2015. Human activities in five provinces had the greatest negative impact on the ecological environment and the greatest pressure on ecological restoration. This study provided a new way to estimate the spatial distribution of potential ecological carrying capacity and found that spatial simulations of PNDVI, PNPP, and PECC can better quantify the difference between actual and potential ecological conditions under external pressures and can provide a trustworthy scientific basis for formulating differentiated ecological restoration strategies.
当研究生态承载能力（ECC）难以满足生态文明建设的实际需求时，探索区域的潜在生态承载能力（PECC）就显得尤为紧迫。本研究应用分类回归树模型，基于气候变量和实际 NDVI 训练数据估算潜在归一化差异植被指数（PNDVI）。然后，利用 Carnegie-Ames-Stanford 方法（CASA）模型和 PNDVI 模拟潜在净初级生产力（PNPP）。在此基础上，利用改进的生态足迹模型估算了中国 31 个省份的 PECC，并将结果与 2015 年的实际情况进行了比较。结果表明：人均 PECC 存在巨大的空间差异，西北部较高，东南部较低。2015 年，8 个省份的总 PECC 远大于其实际总 ECC。5 个省份的人类活动对生态环境的负面影响最大，对生态恢复的压力最大。本研究为估算潜在生态承载能力的空间分布提供了一种新方法，发现 PNDVI、PNPP 和 PECC 的空间模拟可以更好地量化外部压力下实际和潜在生态条件之间的差异，为制定差异化的生态恢复策略提供可靠的科学依据。
