Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo, 11566, Egypt.
Sci Rep. 2020 Mar 18;10(1):4947. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-61962-8.
In the last few years, significant changes in climate have had a disparate effect on biodiversity. The influences of these changes are random and unpredictable. The resurgence of insect pests, especially of medical and veterinary importance, often corresponds with climate changes. The Old World screwworm, Chrysomya bezziana, is one of the most important myiasis-causing flies that parasitize warm-blooded animals in the Eastern Hemisphere. We used a spatial distribution modeling approach to estimate the consequences of climatic changes on the potential geographic distribution of this insect throughout the world currently and in the future. A Maxent model used occurrence data from 104 localities and 19 climatic factors to predict the suitable habitat regions throughout the world. Two representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5, were used to forecast the future distribution of C. bezziana in 2050 and 2070. The Maxent model for C. bezziana provided a satisfactory result, with a high value of the Area Under Curve equal to 0.855 (±0.001). Furthermore, the True Skilled Statistics value is equal to 0.67. These values indicate the significant influence on the model of the ecology of this fly species. Jackknife test indicated that temperature variables play a significant role in C. bezziana dynamics. The resultant models indicated the areas at risk of invasion by potential serious medical/veterinary issues, especially in countries with a large livestock production.
在过去的几年中，气候的显著变化对生物多样性产生了不同的影响。这些变化的影响是随机和不可预测的。昆虫害虫的死灰复燃，特别是对医学和兽医具有重要意义的害虫，通常与气候变化相对应。旧世界螺旋蝇，Chrysomya bezziana，是寄生在东半球温血动物身上最重要的蝇类之一。我们使用空间分布建模方法来估计气候变化对这种昆虫在全球目前和未来潜在地理分布的影响。Maxent 模型使用了来自 104 个地点和 19 个气候因素的发生数据，来预测全球范围内适宜栖息地的分布。我们使用了两个代表性浓度途径 2.6 和 8.5，来预测 C. bezziana 在 2050 年和 2070 年的未来分布。C. bezziana 的 Maxent 模型提供了一个令人满意的结果，曲线下面积（AUC）的值非常高，为 0.855（±0.001）。此外，True Skilled Statistics 值等于 0.67。这些值表明，该模型对该蝇种生态学具有重要影响。Jackknife 测试表明，温度变量在 C. bezziana 动态中起着重要作用。所得模型表明，这些地区存在潜在的严重医学/兽医问题的入侵风险，特别是在畜牧业生产大国。
