Sutherst R W, Spradbery J P, Maywald G F
Division of Entomology, Long Pocket Laboratories, Indooroopilly, Queensland, Australia.
Med Vet Entomol. 1989 Jul;3(3):273-80. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.1989.tb00228.x.
The potential geographical distribution and relative abundance of the Old World screw-worm fly, Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as determined by climate, was assessed using CLIMEX, a computer program for matching climates. CLIMEX describes the relative growth and persistence of animal populations in relation to climate. The observed global distribution of C.bezziana was compared with the potential distribution predicted by CLIMEX. The differences in the two distributions indicate the areas at risk of colonization, with particular reference to Australia and the Americas. According to the model, the potential area of permanent colonization in Australia extends south to the mid-coast of New South Wales. Comparison of areas suitable for permanent establishment with the potential summer distribution indicates that large additional areas, carrying most of the continent's livestock, could be colonized in the summer months. Seasonal population growth indices are presented for three ports in Australia at which screw-worm fly specimens have been collected by quarantine authorities. They indicate the relative risk associated with introductions at different places in different seasons and so provide valuable planning information for quarantine authorities. The CLIMEX predictions for C.bezziana in North America are shown to be similar to the recorded distribution limits of the New World screw-worm fly, Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel). The fly could also colonize South America, as far south as southern Brazil and midway through Argentina.
利用CLIMEX（一种用于气候匹配的计算机程序）评估了气候对旧大陆螺旋蝇（Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve，双翅目：丽蝇科）潜在地理分布和相对丰度的影响。CLIMEX描述了动物种群相对于气候的相对增长和持久性。将观察到的C.bezziana全球分布与CLIMEX预测的潜在分布进行了比较。两种分布的差异表明了有被殖民风险的区域，特别是澳大利亚和美洲。根据该模型，澳大利亚永久殖民的潜在区域向南延伸至新南威尔士州的中海岸。将适合永久定居的区域与潜在夏季分布进行比较表明，在夏季月份，承载该大陆大部分牲畜的大片额外区域可能会被殖民。给出了澳大利亚三个港口的季节性种群增长指数，检疫当局在这些港口采集了螺旋蝇标本。这些指数表明了在不同季节不同地点引入螺旋蝇相关的相对风险，从而为检疫当局提供了有价值的规划信息。CLIMEX对北美洲C.bezziana的预测结果与新大陆螺旋蝇（Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel)）记录的分布界限相似。这种苍蝇还可能在南美洲殖民，最南可达巴西南部和阿根廷中部。
