Guanghong Ding, Chang Liu, Jianqiu Gong, Ling Wang, Ke Cheng, Di Zhang
Department of Mechanics and Engineering Science, Shanghai Research Center of Acupuncture and Meridians, Fudan University, 200433 Shanghai, China.
Chin Sci Bull. 2004;49(21):2332-2338. doi: 10.1360/04we0073. Epub 2013 Mar 22.
The SIJR model, simplified from the SEIJR model, is adopted to analyze the important parameters of the model of SARS epidemic such as the transmission rate, basic reproductive number. And some important parameters are obtained such as the transmission rate by applying this model to analyzing the situation in Hong Kong, Singapore and Canada at the outbreak of SARS. Then forecast of the transmission of SARS is drawn out here by the adjustment of parameters (such as quarantined rate) in the model. It is obvious that inflexion lies on the crunode of the graph, which indicates the big difference in transmission characteristics between the epidemic under control and not under control. This model can also be used in the comparison of the control effectiveness among different regions. The results from this model match well with the actual data in Hong Kong, Singapore and Canada and as a by-product, the index of the effectiveness of control in the later period can be acquired. It offers some quantitative indexes, which may help the further research in epidemic diseases.
SIJR模型由SEIJR模型简化而来，用于分析SARS疫情模型的重要参数，如传播率、基本再生数等。通过将该模型应用于分析香港、新加坡和加拿大SARS爆发时的情况，得出了一些重要参数，如传播率。然后通过调整模型中的参数（如隔离率）对SARS的传播进行预测。显然，拐点位于图形的节点上，这表明疫情受控和不受控时传播特征存在很大差异。该模型还可用于不同地区控制效果的比较。该模型的结果与香港、新加坡和加拿大的实际数据匹配良好，并且作为副产品，可以获得后期控制效果指数。它提供了一些定量指标，可能有助于对传染病的进一步研究。
