Kreitmair M J, Adcock T A A, Borthwick A G L, Draper S, van den Bremer T S
School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FB, UK.
Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PJ, UK.
R Soc Open Sci. 2020 Jan 15;7(1):191127. doi: 10.1098/rsos.191127. eCollection 2020 Jan.
Uncertainty affects estimates of the power potential of tidal currents, resulting in large ranges in values reported for sites such as the Pentland Firth, UK. Kreitmair (2019, , 180941. (doi:10.1098/rsos.191127)) have examined the effect of uncertainty in bottom friction on tidal power estimates by considering idealized theoretical models. The present paper considers the role of bottom friction uncertainty in a realistic numerical model of the Pentland Firth spanned by different fence configurations. We find that uncertainty in removable power estimates resulting from bed roughness uncertainty depends on the case considered, with relative uncertainty between 2% (for a fully spanned channel with small values of mean roughness and input uncertainty) and 44% (for an asymmetrically confined channel with high values of bed roughness and input uncertainty). Relative uncertainty in power estimates is generally smaller than (input) relative uncertainty in bottom friction by a factor of between 0.2 and 0.7, except for low turbine deployments and very high mean values of friction. This paper makes a start at quantifying uncertainty in tidal stream power estimates, and motivates further work for proper characterization of the resource, accounting for uncertainty inherent in resource modelling.
不确定性影响潮流功率潜力的估计，导致英国彭特兰湾等地报告的数值范围差异很大。Kreitmair（2019年，[具体文献信息]，180941。（doi:10.1098/rsos.191127））通过考虑理想化理论模型研究了底部摩擦不确定性对潮汐能估计的影响。本文考虑了底部摩擦不确定性在由不同围栏配置跨越的彭特兰湾实际数值模型中的作用。我们发现，由床面粗糙度不确定性导致的可移除功率估计的不确定性取决于所考虑的情况，相对不确定性在2%（对于平均粗糙度值较小且输入不确定性较小的完全跨越通道）到44%（对于床面粗糙度值较高且输入不确定性较高的非对称受限通道）之间。功率估计的相对不确定性通常比底部摩擦的（输入）相对不确定性小0.2到0.7倍，低涡轮机部署和非常高的摩擦平均值情况除外。本文开始对潮汐流功率估计中的不确定性进行量化，并推动进一步工作以对资源进行恰当表征，同时考虑资源建模中固有的不确定性。
