Spatiotemporal Spread of Abnormal Vertical Growth of Macadamia in Australia Informs Epidemiology.

Australian macadamia production is threatened by a disorder known as abnormal vertical growth (AVG), for which the etiology is unknown. AVG is characterized by vigorous upright growth and reduced lateral branching, flowering, and nut set that results in over 70% yield loss annually. Six commercial macadamia orchards were surveyed in 2012 and again in 2018 to examine spatiotemporal dynamics of the epidemic. Data were subjected to point-pattern and geostatistical analyses. AVG incidence in all orchards showed a better fit to the beta-binomial distribution than the binomial distribution. AVG incidence in the different orchards varied between 5 and 47% in 2012, and 13 and 55% in 2018 and the rate of spread was slow, averaging at about 2% increase in disease incidence per annum. Spatial patterns of AVG were highly aggregated on both survey years and spread was mainly between neighboring trees in a row or trees that were opposite to each other in different rows. Semivariograms showed large range values (approximately 15 to 120), indicating aggregation of AVG-affected trees beyond quadrat levels. Furthermore, clusters of disease were mainly at the edge of the orchard on the first survey date and the disease progressed toward the center of the orchard over time. It is concluded that AVG is caused by an infectious agent, and based on patterns of spread, we hypothesize that spread is facilitated by root grafting or root-to-root contact. Furthermore, a vascular-limited pathogen could be involved that modulates plant hormone production.