Emergency Department, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China (mainland).
Med Sci Monit. 2020 Apr 1;26:e920880. doi: 10.12659/MSM.920880.
BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a global public health problem. Prediabetes may be reversed by weight loss, diet, and lifestyle changes. However, without intervention, between 30-50% of individuals with prediabetes develop type 2 diabetes. This retrospective population study was conducted to develop a predictive model of prediabetes and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus using data from 2004 to 2015 from the DRYAD Japanese hospital database. MATERIAL AND METHODS A retrospective longitudinal population study was conducted using the DRYAD database from Murakami Memorial Hospital, Gifu, Japan, to construct a predictive model for prediabetes and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in the population. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the variables that were associated with prediabetes. These variables were used to construct (75% samples) and verify (25% samples) the predictive model. RESULTS From 2004 to 2015, a total of 11,113 cases were identified. Multivariate logistic regression analysis included the six variables of age, waist circumference, smoking history, the presence of fatty liver, fasting blood glucose (FBG), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level. Data were used to construct (75% samples) and verify (25% samples) in a predictive model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0.87 (0.85-0.89) in the training cohort and 0.87 (0.86-0.90) in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS A prognostic model based on six variables was predictive for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus and prediabetes in a healthy population in Japan.
2 型糖尿病是一个全球性的公共卫生问题。通过减肥、饮食和生活方式的改变，可能逆转糖尿病前期。然而，如果不进行干预，大约有 30-50%的糖尿病前期患者会发展为 2 型糖尿病。本回顾性人群研究旨在使用来自日本 DRYAD 医院数据库的 2004 年至 2015 年的数据，建立预测糖尿病前期和 2 型糖尿病的模型。
使用来自日本岐阜县村上纪念医院的 DRYAD 数据库进行回顾性纵向人群研究，构建预测人群中糖尿病前期和 2 型糖尿病的模型。进行单变量分析和多变量分析，以确定与糖尿病前期相关的变量。这些变量用于构建（75%的样本）和验证（25%的样本）预测模型。
2004 年至 2015 年期间，共确定了 11113 例患者。多变量逻辑回归分析包括年龄、腰围、吸烟史、脂肪肝、空腹血糖（FBG）和糖化血红蛋白（HbA1c）水平等 6 个变量。数据用于构建（75%的样本）和验证（25%的样本）预测模型。该预测模型的受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积（AUC）在训练队列中为 0.87（0.85-0.89），在验证队列中为 0.87（0.86-0.90）。
基于 6 个变量的预测模型可预测日本健康人群中 2 型糖尿病和糖尿病前期的发生。
