Department of Forensic Psychiatry, Child and Youth Forensic Service, University Hospital of Psychiatry, Neptunstrasse 60, 8032, Zurich, Switzerland.
Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Hospital of Psychiatry, Zurich, Switzerland.
Child Psychiatry Hum Dev. 2021 Feb;52(1):30-40. doi: 10.1007/s10578-020-00986-7.
This longitudinal study aimed to evaluate a newly developed cumulative measure for substance use problems as predictor of criminal recidivism in youth. Questionnaires-based substance-related behaviors (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and further drugs), and interview-based psychiatric disorders were assessed in a sample of 142 male adolescent forensic outpatients in Zurich, Switzerland (mean age 16.8 years, SD = 1.4 years). Cox regressions were used to test whether substance use behaviors/disorders were predictors of officially recorded criminal offenses 365 days after the initial assessment. The cumulative substance problem score (SPS) was a valid measure for assessing the risk of criminal recidivism for youth having 2-3 (OR 2.24-2.56) and 4+ problems (OR 3.40-4.37) in comparison to youth with 0-1 problems. Forensic experts and clinicians should comprehensively assess substance use patterns in juvenile offenders and may use the SPS as an indicator for further criminal risks. Additional analysis of the SPS in other forensic samples and cultures would be worthwhile.
本纵向研究旨在评估一种新开发的物质使用问题累积衡量指标，以预测青少年的犯罪再犯率。在瑞士苏黎世的一个 142 名男性青少年法医门诊患者样本中，基于问卷的物质相关行为（烟草、酒精、大麻和其他药物）和基于访谈的精神障碍进行了评估（平均年龄 16.8 岁，标准差=1.4 岁）。Cox 回归用于测试物质使用行为/障碍是否是初始评估后 365 天正式记录的犯罪行为的预测因子。累积物质问题评分（SPS）是一种评估具有 2-3（OR 2.24-2.56）和 4+问题（OR 3.40-4.37）的青少年犯罪再犯风险的有效衡量指标，与仅有 0-1 个问题的青少年相比。法医专家和临床医生应全面评估青少年罪犯的物质使用模式，并可将 SPS 用作进一步犯罪风险的指标。在其他法医样本和文化中对 SPS 的进一步分析将是值得的。
