Pederson L L, Wanklin J M, Lefcoe N M
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Western Ontario, London, Canada.
Int J Epidemiol. 1988 Dec;17(4):804-9. doi: 10.1093/ije/17.4.804.
Smoking status of 372 patients with respiratory disease, who had been advised to quit smoking by a respiratory specialist, was assessed six months after the advice. A multiple logistic regression model was developed for prediction of successful abstinence. The patients were again followed four to seven years later. Questionnaires were returned by 160 patients (43.0%). Of the remaining patients, 27 (7.3%) had died, 12 (3.2%) refused to participate, 53 (14.2%) had no current address available and 120 (32.3%) did not return questionnaires mailed to them. Among the respondents, 31.9% reported at least one year of abstinence from cigarettes, 63.1% were still smoking and 5.0% had quit smoking for periods of less than one year. While the original logistic model was not very useful for predicting long-term success (69.7% accuracy of classification), a model that included, as predictors, six-month smoking status and reasons for smoking other than addiction, was more useful (78.9% accuracy). At follow-up, successful abstainers reported improvement in their respiratory condition but no differences were found in reported symptoms or emotional well-being when they were compared to those who continued to smoke. Treatment implications of these results are discussed and include offers of alternative treatments if short-term abstinence is not achieved following physician advice.
372例呼吸系统疾病患者曾接受呼吸科专家的戒烟建议，在该建议提出六个月后对他们的吸烟状况进行了评估。建立了一个多元逻辑回归模型来预测戒烟是否成功。四到七年后对这些患者再次进行随访。160例患者（43.0%）回复了问卷。其余患者中，27例（7.3%）已死亡，12例（3.2%）拒绝参与，53例（14.2%）没有有效的当前地址，120例（32.3%）未回复邮寄给他们的问卷。在回复者中，31.9%报告已戒烟至少一年，63.1%仍在吸烟，5.0%已戒烟但时间不足一年。虽然最初的逻辑模型对预测长期戒烟成功不是很有用（分类准确率为69.7%），但一个将六个月时的吸烟状况和除成瘾外的吸烟原因作为预测因素的模型更有用（准确率为78.9%）。在随访时，成功戒烟者报告其呼吸状况有所改善，但与继续吸烟者相比，在报告的症状或情绪健康方面未发现差异。讨论了这些结果对治疗的影响，包括如果按照医生建议未实现短期戒烟则提供替代治疗。
