Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, India.
Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, India; Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, India.
J Environ Manage. 2020 Jun 15;264:110487. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110487. Epub 2020 Apr 3.
Agricultural adaptation to climate change includes changes in agricultural management practices which will be quite effective in reducing the probability of crop failure and improving the socio economic condition of farmers. Knowledge about the decision making process of farmers can help in identifying the determinants of adaptation to them. It is very important to model the farmers' behaviour and decision making process to answer the reasons for farmers' suicides and inequalities arising out within the farmers belonging to same group. Our study identifies the factors responsible for increasing inequalities, crop failure and differential decision making capabilities of farmers by surveying 400 farmers in eighteen villages of Maharashtra, India. We analysed how combination of various factors such as social, economic, infrastructural and institutional affect the decision making process of farmers which brings out the novelty of the present work that can be replicated across a spectrum of such studies. Further, different adaptation options were categorized into the most and least preferred adaptive strategies by considering the farmers' perception. Our work has also identified which particular factor i.e. climatic, institutional, infrastructural or socio-economic is the major challenge towards the adaptation of farmers. The study has followed logit model in investigating the farmers' adaptation to multiple stressors. The study has also addressed the on-going argument regarding the scale of policy formulation i.e., whether policy formulation should take place at micro scale (Decentralization) or at larger region (State/National) level. Findings revealed that farmers perceive climate variability in terms of monsoon and temperature variability and respond as per their indigenous knowledge and experience. Model results revealed that institutional, social and climatic factors should be the focus point of government for improving the adaptation profile of farmers.
农业适应气候变化包括农业管理实践的变化，这将非常有效地降低作物歉收的概率，提高农民的社会经济状况。了解农民的决策过程有助于识别适应的决定因素。模拟农民的行为和决策过程对于回答农民自杀和同一群体内农民之间出现的不平等现象的原因非常重要。我们的研究通过对印度马哈拉施特拉邦的 18 个村庄的 400 名农民进行调查，确定了导致不平等加剧、作物歉收和农民决策能力差异的因素。我们分析了各种因素（如社会、经济、基础设施和制度）的组合如何影响农民的决策过程，这突显出本研究的新颖性，可以在一系列此类研究中复制。此外，通过考虑农民的看法，将不同的适应选项分为最优先和最不优先的适应策略。我们的工作还确定了哪些特定因素（即气候、制度、基础设施或社会经济）是农民适应的主要挑战。该研究在调查农民对多种胁迫因素的适应时采用了对数模型。该研究还解决了关于政策制定规模的持续争论，即政策制定应该在微观层面（权力下放）还是在更大的区域（州/国家）层面进行。研究结果表明，农民根据季风和温度变化感知气候变异性，并根据其本土知识和经验做出反应。模型结果表明，制度、社会和气候因素应该是政府关注的重点，以提高农民的适应能力。
