中国 COVID-19 疫情的空间流行动态。

BACKGROUND: On 31 December 2019 an outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, was reported. The outbreak spread rapidly to other Chinese cities and multiple countries. This study described the spatio-temporal pattern and measured the spatial association of the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China from 16 January-06 February 2020. METHODS: This study explored the spatial epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in mainland China. Moran's I spatial statistic with various definitions of neighbours was used to conduct a test to determine whether a spatial association of the COVID-19 infections existed. RESULTS: The spatial spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in China was observed. The results showed that most of the models, except medical-care-based connection models, indicated a significant spatial association of COVID-19 infections from around 22 January 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial analysis is of great help in understanding the spread of infectious diseases, and spatial association was the key to the spatial spread during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China.

背景：2019 年 12 月 31 日，中国武汉报告了 COVID-19 疫情的爆发。疫情迅速蔓延到中国其他城市和多个国家。本研究描述了 COVID-19 在中国大陆从 2020 年 1 月 16 日至 2 月 6 日的早期阶段的时空模式，并测量了其空间关联性。

方法：本研究探讨了 COVID-19 在中国大陆的空间流行动态。使用各种邻域定义的 Moran's I 空间统计量进行检验，以确定 COVID-19 感染是否存在空间关联。

结果：观察到 COVID-19 大流行在中国的空间传播。结果表明，除基于医疗保健的连接模型外，大多数模型都表明，从 2020 年 1 月 22 日左右开始，COVID-19 感染存在显著的空间关联。

结论：空间分析对理解传染病的传播具有重要帮助，空间关联是 COVID-19 在中国大陆早期流行期间空间传播的关键。