Ghosh Pritam, Cartone Alfredo
Department of Geography University of Calcutta Kolkata India.
Department of Geography Ramsaday College Amta Howrah India.
Reg Sci Policy Prac. 2020 Dec;12(6):1047-1062. doi: 10.1111/rsp3.12376. Epub 2020 Dec 9.
Within two weeks from the first detection of the SARS-CoV-2 positive patient on 21 February, from Lombardy the disease has spread over every region in Italy. The main objective of this study is to identify spatial effects and spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak of COVID-19 in different regions of Italy. Spatial indicators for different periods, as Moran's , local Moran, LISA clusters, Getis and Ord , and scatterplots are used for this purpose. Results confirm the great presence of spatial effects as well as changes in spatial regimes between the quarantine and the easing phase. The evidence could be of help for policy-makers to a proper assessments of health strategies aware of local characteristics.
自2月21日首次检测出新冠病毒阳性患者后的两周内,该疾病从伦巴第大区蔓延至意大利的各个地区。本研究的主要目的是确定意大利不同地区新冠疫情的空间效应和时空模式。为此使用了不同时期的空间指标,如莫兰指数、局部莫兰指数、局部空间自相关聚类、Getis-Ord指数以及散点图。结果证实了空间效应的显著存在以及封控期和解封期之间空间格局的变化。这些证据有助于政策制定者在了解当地特征的情况下对卫生策略进行适当评估。