Hanafi-Bojd Ahmad Ali, Sharififard Mona, Jahanifard Elham, Navidpour Shahrokh, Vazirianzadeh Babak
Department of Medical Entomology and Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran.
Vet World. 2020 Feb;13(2):296-303. doi: 10.14202/vetworld.2020.296-303. Epub 2020 Feb 17.
The purpose of this research was to use environmental variables for predicting the probability of existence in the provinces where situated in the west of the Zagros Mountains.
In this study, 64 occurrence records of the were extracted from the published documents available in electronic databases. MaxEnt model was used for predicting the ecological niches of this species. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and 19 climatic variables were used as the environmental variables affecting the distribution of this scorpion. The Jackknife test in the model was used to indicate the importance of variables to predict the probability of the presence of the studied species. The logistic threshold that was evaluated using a logistic regression algorithm showed the converting of the probability model into a binary model. The model was evaluated byarea under the curve (AUC). The probability presence map of this scorpion was then prepared in ArcGIS 10.5 Software.
The results of the analysis showed that the most important environmental factor on the distribution of was the maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) with a contribution rate of 43% and permutation importance of 8%. The Jackknife test revealed that NDVI did not gain any value when it used independently in the model. The logistic threshold was reported 0.255 for the maximum test sensitivity plus specificity. The AUC of the model was 0.7698, shows an acceptable value for model validity. Overall the hot spots for this toxic scorpion seem to be in Khuzestan, Lorestan, and Ilam Provinces of the studied area.
Regarding our findings, MaxEnt algorithm, in combination with geographic information system contributed to revealing the effects of environmental variables on the probability of presence in the west of Zagros Mountains. These visualized maps as a warning alarm can be helpful to policymakers for managing, controlling, and monitoring the scorpionism in high-risk areas.
本研究的目的是利用环境变量预测位于扎格罗斯山脉西部省份的[物种名称未给出]存在的概率。
在本研究中，从电子数据库中可用的已发表文献中提取了[物种名称未给出]的64条出现记录。使用MaxEnt模型预测该物种的生态位。归一化植被指数（NDVI）和19个气候变量被用作影响这种蝎子分布的环境变量。模型中的刀切法检验用于表明变量对预测研究物种存在概率的重要性。使用逻辑回归算法评估的逻辑阈值显示了概率模型向二元模型的转换。通过曲线下面积（AUC）评估模型。然后在ArcGIS 10.5软件中绘制这种蝎子的概率存在图。
分析结果表明，对[物种名称未给出]分布影响最重要的环境因素是最暖月的最高温度（Bio5），贡献率为43%，排列重要性为8%。刀切法检验表明，当NDVI在模型中单独使用时没有任何价值。报告的最大测试灵敏度加特异性的逻辑阈值为0.255。模型的AUC为0.7698，表明模型有效性的值可接受。总体而言，这种有毒蝎子的热点似乎在所研究区域的胡齐斯坦省、洛雷斯坦省和伊拉姆省。
根据我们的研究结果，MaxEnt算法与地理信息系统相结合有助于揭示环境变量对扎格罗斯山脉西部[物种名称未给出]存在概率的影响。这些可视化地图作为一个警告警报，有助于政策制定者管理、控制和监测高风险地区的蝎蜇伤情况。
