Lorenz Susanne, Dessai Suraje, Forster Piers M, Paavola Jouni
School of Earth and Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT UK.
Reg Environ Change. 2017;17(2):425-435. doi: 10.1007/s10113-016-1030-3. Epub 2016 Jul 28.
Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.
适应气候变化的规划通常被视为地方的当务之急，并且如果基于坚实的证据基础并认识到相关的气候预测，会被认为更有效。研究已经记录了在决策中使气候信息可用所面临的一些挑战，但尚未充分思考更广泛的制度和监管背景的作用。本文通过分析2013年7月至2014年5月期间在英格兰和德国对规划者进行的44份规划和气候变化（适应）文件以及54次半结构化访谈，研究了外部制度背景对地方政府气候预测使用和可用性的影响。我们发现，由于现有的政策、法律和监管框架，两国地方适应规划对气候预测的需求都很少。在规划和监管框架的变化以及严重的预算削减中，英格兰地方政府不仅气候预测的使用有所下降，而且气候变化适应议程在更广泛的范围内也在减弱。在德国，空间规划大量使用过去和当前的气候数据，但由于规划的严格规范性，由于气候预测存在固有不确定性，其使用受到阻碍。两国的研究结果表明，如果我们要更好地理解气候预测的可用性，就需要更加了解做出规划决策的制度背景。否则，我们有可能继续提供在其预期背景下用途有限的工具和信息。
