Department of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Research Center for Pure and Applied Mathematics, Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.
J Math Biol. 2020 Jun;80(7):2109-2140. doi: 10.1007/s00285-020-01491-0. Epub 2020 Apr 8.
An SIS model is analyzed to consider the contribution of community structure to the risk of the spread of a transmissible disease. We focus on the human day-to-day activity introduced by commuting to a central place for the social activity. We assume that the community is classified into two subpopulations: commuter and non-commuter, of which the commuter has two phases of the day-to-day activity: private and social. Further we take account of the combination of contact patterns in two phases, making use of mass-action and ratio-dependent types for the infection force. We investigate the dependence of the basic reproduction number on the commuter ratio and the daily expected duration at the social phase as essential factors characterizing the community structure, and show that the dependence is significantly affected by the combination of contact patterns, and that the difference in the commuter ratio could make the risk of the spread of a transmissible disease significantly different.
分析了一个 SIS 模型，以研究社区结构对传染病传播风险的贡献。我们专注于通勤到中心场所进行社交活动所引入的人类日常活动。我们假设社区分为两类人群：通勤者和非通勤者，其中通勤者的日常活动有两个阶段：私人阶段和社交阶段。此外，我们考虑了两个阶段中接触模式的组合，利用质量作用和比例依赖型的感染力。我们研究了基本繁殖数对通勤者比例和社交阶段的日常预期持续时间的依赖性，这是描述社区结构的基本因素，并表明这种依赖性受到接触模式组合的显著影响，而且通勤者比例的差异可能会使传染病传播的风险有显著差异。
