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具有隐性感染和隔离的 COVID-19 传染病模型的全球动力学

Global dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic model with recessive infection and isolation.

机构信息

School of Science, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, China.

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China.

出版信息

Math Biosci Eng. 2021 Feb 22;18(2):1833-1844. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021095.

Abstract

In this paper, we present an SEIIaHR epidemic model to study the influence of recessive infection and isolation in the spread of COVID-19. We first prove that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable with condition R<1 and the positive equilibrium is uniformly persistent when the condition R>1. By using the COVID-19 data in India, we then give numerical simulations to illustrate our results and carry out some sensitivity analysis. We know that asymptomatic infections will affect the spread of the disease when the quarantine rate is within the range of [0.3519, 0.5411]. Furthermore, isolating people with symptoms is important to control and eliminate the disease.

摘要

在本文中,我们提出了一个 SEIIaHR 传染病模型来研究隐性感染和隔离对 COVID-19 传播的影响。我们首先证明了当条件 R<1 时,无感染平衡点全局渐近稳定,当条件 R>1 时,正平衡点一致持续。通过使用印度的 COVID-19 数据,我们给出了数值模拟来验证我们的结果,并进行了一些敏感性分析。我们知道,当隔离率在[0.3519, 0.5411]范围内时,无症状感染会影响疾病的传播。此外,隔离有症状的人对于控制和消除疾病是很重要的。

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