Evans L, Frick M C
Operating Sciences Department, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, MI 48090.
Accid Anal Prev. 1988 Dec;20(6):447-58. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(88)90043-7.
Helmet effectiveness in preventing fatalities to motorcycle drivers and passengers was determined by applying the double pair comparison method to the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data for 1975 through 1986. Motorcycles with a driver and a passenger, at least one of whom was killed, were used. In order to reduce as much as possible potentially confounding effects due to the dependence of survivability on sex and age, the analysis is confined to male drivers (there were insufficient female driver data), and to cases in which the driver and passenger age do not differ by more than three years. Motorcycle helmet effectiveness estimates are found to be relatively unaffected by performing the analyses in a number of ways different from that indicated above. It was found that helmets are (28 +/- 8)% effective in preventing fatalities to motorcycle riders (the error is one standard error), the effectiveness being similar for male and female passengers, and similar for drivers and passengers. An additional result found was that the fatality risk in the driver seat exceeds that in the passenger seat by (26 +/- 2)%. The 28% effectiveness found generates calculated fatality increases from repeal of mandatory helmet-wearing laws that are compatible with observed increases.
通过对1975年至1986年的致命事故报告系统（FARS）数据应用双配对比较法，确定了头盔对摩托车驾驶员和乘客预防死亡的有效性。使用了有驾驶员和乘客且至少有一人死亡的摩托车。为了尽可能减少由于生存能力对性别和年龄的依赖性而可能产生的混杂效应，分析仅限于男性驾驶员（女性驾驶员数据不足），以及驾驶员和乘客年龄相差不超过三岁的情况。通过多种与上述方法不同的方式进行分析，发现摩托车头盔有效性估计相对不受影响。结果发现，头盔在预防摩托车骑手死亡方面的有效性为（28±8）%（误差为一个标准误差），男性和女性乘客的有效性相似，驾驶员和乘客的有效性也相似。另外一个结果是，驾驶员座位上的死亡风险比乘客座位上的死亡风险高（26±2）%。所发现的28%的有效性产生了因废除强制性戴头盔法律而计算出的死亡人数增加，这与观察到的增加情况相符。
