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机器人辅助肾部分切除术治疗肾细胞癌的综合长期疗效评估:ROMe 的成就及其预测列线图。

Comprehensive long-term assessment of outcomes following robot-assisted partial nephrectomy for renal cell carcinoma: the ROMe's achievement and its predicting nomogram.

机构信息

Department of Urology, IRCCS "Regina Elena" National Cancer Institute, Rome, Italy -

Department of Urology, IRCCS "Regina Elena" National Cancer Institute, Rome, Italy.

出版信息

Minerva Urol Nefrol. 2020 Aug;72(4):482-489. doi: 10.23736/S0393-2249.20.03813-8. Epub 2020 Apr 16.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

We proposed a new tool (named ROMe's) to summarize long-term outcomes after partial nephrectomy (PN), identified its predictors and generated a predicting nomogram.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of a multicenter dataset of patients with non-metastatic pT1-3a renal cell carcinoma was performed. Baseline demographic, clinical, pathologic and perioperative data were collected. ROMe's was defined as the concomitant lack of cancer-recurrences, death and newly onset Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), at long term follow-up. Kaplan-Meier method investigated the predictive role of Trifecta on ROMe's achievement. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses identified its predictors. A nomogram was generated and its accuracy was quantified using concordance index (CI). A calibration plot was obtained with 200 bootstraps resampling to explore nomogram performance at 5 years and decision curve analyses (DCA) assessed the net benefit of the model at 12, 36 and 60 months.

RESULTS

We included 927 patients. The rates of ROMe's were 82%, 72% and 56% at 1, 3 and 5 years follow-up. At Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients who achieved Trifecta displayed a significantly higher probability of ROMe's (log rank P<0.001). Young age (OR=0.982; P=0.001), low RENAL score (OR=0.86; P=0.037), high preoperative filtration rate (OR=1.02; P<0.001) and Trifecta achievement (OR=2.03; P=0.015), were independent predictors of ROMe's. The nomogram showed a CI of 0.76 at 60 months. The 5-years calibration plot confirmed a good discrimination accuracy (0.74); on DCA, the net benefit of using the model was evident for probabilities >30%.

CONCLUSIONS

We conceived a triad to summarize the main long-term oncologic and functional outcomes after PN and generated a predicting nomogram.

摘要

背景

我们提出了一种新的工具(命名为 ROMe's)来总结肾部分切除术(PN)后的长期结果,确定了其预测因素,并生成了一个预测列线图。

方法

对多中心非转移性 pT1-3a 肾细胞癌患者数据集进行回顾性分析。收集基线人口统计学、临床、病理和围手术期数据。ROMe's 定义为长期随访时癌症复发、死亡和新发生的慢性肾脏病(CKD)的同时缺乏。Kaplan-Meier 法探讨了 trifecta 对 ROMe's 实现的预测作用。单变量和多变量 Cox 回归分析确定了其预测因素。生成了一个列线图,并通过一致性指数(CI)量化了其准确性。通过 200 次自举重采样获得校准图,以探索 5 年时列线图的性能,并通过决策曲线分析(DCA)评估 12、36 和 60 个月时模型的净获益。

结果

我们纳入了 927 例患者。1、3 和 5 年随访时,ROMe's 的发生率分别为 82%、72%和 56%。在 Kaplan-Meier 分析中,达到 trifecta 的患者 ROMe's 的概率显著更高(对数秩 P<0.001)。年龄较小(OR=0.982;P=0.001)、低 RENAL 评分(OR=0.86;P=0.037)、术前滤过率较高(OR=1.02;P<0.001)和 trifecta 达成(OR=2.03;P=0.015)是 ROMe's 的独立预测因素。列线图在 60 个月时显示 CI 为 0.76。5 年校准图证实了良好的区分准确性(0.74);在 DCA 中,对于概率>30%,使用模型的净获益明显。

结论

我们提出了一个三联症来总结 PN 后的主要长期肿瘤学和功能结果,并生成了一个预测列线图。

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