严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 流行期间的疫情激增模型：错误还是有用？
Pandemic Surge Models in the Time of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2: Wrong or Useful?
机构信息
Tufts Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts (J.B.W.).
出版信息
Ann Intern Med. 2020 Sep 1;173(5):396-398. doi: 10.7326/M20-1956. Epub 2020 Apr 16.
Abstract
Public health decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic involves tradeoffs, uncertainty, and values, and models have been developed to inform administrative and policy decision makers to forecast demand for hospital resources, to understand hospital capacity constraints, and to determine when peak demand occurs. This editorial discusses fundamental differences among 3 models in current use.
摘要
在 COVID-19 大流行期间，公共卫生决策涉及权衡、不确定性和价值观，已经开发了模型来为行政和政策决策者提供信息，以预测医院资源的需求，了解医院能力的限制，并确定需求高峰何时出现。本社论讨论了当前使用的 3 种模型之间的根本区别。
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