From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing (Q.L., X.W., L.Z., R.R., N.X., C.L., D.L., J.Z., W.T., L.J., Q.W., R.W., Y.Z., G. Shi, G.F.G., Z.F.), the Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei (X.G., Y.T., X.X., Y.W., Q.C., M.L., C.C., R.Y., S.Z., Y. Luo, B.Y.), the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (P.W., K.S.M.L., E.H.Y.L., J.Y.W., T.T.Y.L., J.T.W., B.J.C., G.M.L.), the Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing (T.L., R.Y., S.Z., H. Liu, Y. Liu, G. Shao, H. Li, Z.T.), the Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou, Hubei (T.L.), the Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, Sichuan (H. Liu); the Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan (Y. Liu), the Anyang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Anyang, Henan (G. Shao), the Panjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Panjin, Liaoning (H. Li), the Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang, Guizhou (Z.T.), the Jiading District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai (Y.Y.), the Nanchang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang, Jiangxi (Z.D.), the Inner Mongolia Comprehensive Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia (B.L.), and the Baoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai (Z.M.) - all in China.
N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1199-1207. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316. Epub 2020 Jan 29.
The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP.
We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number.
Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).
On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.).
新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）感染的肺炎（NCIP）的最初病例发生于 2019 年 12 月和 2020 年 1 月中国湖北省武汉市。我们分析了截至 2020 年 1 月 22 日报告的武汉市首批 425 例确诊病例的数据，以确定 NCIP 的流行病学特征。
我们收集了截至 2020 年 1 月 22 日报告的实验室确诊的 NCIP 病例的人口统计学特征、暴露史和疾病时间线信息。我们描述了病例的特征，并估计了关键的流行病学时滞分布。在指数增长的早期，我们估计了疫情倍增时间和基本繁殖数。
在首批 425 例确诊的 NCIP 患者中，中位年龄为 59 岁，56%为男性。与随后的病例相比，发病前于 2020 年 1 月 1 日之前的病例中，55%与华南海鲜批发市场有关，而 8.6%的病例与此无关。潜伏期的平均时间为 5.2 天（95%置信区间[CI]，4.1 至 7.0），分布的第 95 百分位数为 12.5 天。在早期阶段，疫情每 7.4 天就会翻一番。根据平均续发间隔时间 7.5 天（95%CI，5.3 至 19），基本繁殖数估计为 2.2（95%CI，1.4 至 3.9）。
基于这些信息，有证据表明，自 2019 年 12 月中旬以来，密切接触者之间已经发生了人际传播。如果其他地方出现类似的动态，为控制疫情爆发需要做出巨大努力来减少传播。应在高危人群中实施预防或减少传播的措施。（由中国科学技术部等资助）。
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