De Groote Hugo, Kimenju Simon C, Munyua Bernard, Palmas Sebastian, Kassie Menale, Bruce Anani
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Nairobi, Kenya.
Agri-food Economics Africa, Nairobi, Kenya.
Agric Ecosyst Environ. 2020 Apr 15;292:106804. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2019.106804.
Fall armyworm (FAW), one of the most important pests of maize in Latin America, suddenly appeared in Africa in 2016 and spread rapidly. Estimates of crop losses due to FAW are essential in order to compare the impact of these losses with the cost of controlling FAW and advise appropriate technology dissemination and policy. In this study, therefore, crop losses due to FAW in 2017 and 2018 were estimated in all the maize production areas of Kenya. Data were collected during June and July 2018 through 121 group discussions with 1439 farmers, separately with men (697) and women (742), in communities that were randomly selected to represent the major maize growing areas. The results showed that most participants (82%) could correctly identify the FAW from pictures. By 2016, FAW was observed by more than half of the communities (53%), with most of the other half first observing FAW in 2017. The proportion of farmers affected by FAW substantially increased, from the long rains of 2017 (63%) to the long rains of 2018 (83%), and in all zones except for the high tropics and moist mid-altitudes. However, the percentage of loss experienced by affected farmers decreased slightly, from 54% in 2017 to 42% in 2018. In 2017, the low- and medium-potential maize-production areas were the most affected, with losses of >50%, with high-potential areas facing losses of about 30%, resulting in a total loss of 37% for the whole country. In the main 2018 season, losses in the low- and medium-potential areas were less - about 20%, but the high-potential areas were now more affected, leading to a total estimate of 33%. We conclude that FAW has suddenly become a major pest in Kenya, causing losses of about a third of the annual maize production, estimated at about 1 million tonnes.
草地贪夜蛾是拉丁美洲玉米最重要的害虫之一，2016年突然出现在非洲并迅速蔓延。估算草地贪夜蛾造成的作物损失至关重要，以便将这些损失的影响与控制草地贪夜蛾的成本进行比较，并为适当的技术推广和政策提供建议。因此，在本研究中，对肯尼亚所有玉米生产地区2017年和2018年因草地贪夜蛾造成的作物损失进行了估算。2018年6月和7月期间，通过与1439名农民进行121次小组讨论收集数据，这些农民分别来自随机挑选的代表主要玉米种植区的社区，其中男性697人，女性742人。结果表明，大多数参与者（82%）能够从图片中正确识别草地贪夜蛾。到2016年，超过一半的社区（53%）观察到了草地贪夜蛾，另一半中的大多数在2017年首次观察到草地贪夜蛾。受草地贪夜蛾影响的农民比例大幅增加，从2017年长雨季的63%增至2018年长雨季的83%，且除高热带和湿润中海拔地区外的所有区域均如此。然而，受影响农民遭受的损失百分比略有下降，从2017年的54%降至2018年的42%。2017年，低潜力和中潜力玉米生产地区受影响最大，损失超过50%，高潜力地区损失约30%，导致全国总损失达37%。在2018年主要季节，低潜力和中潜力地区的损失较小——约20%，但高潜力地区现在受影响更大，导致总损失估计为33%。我们得出结论，草地贪夜蛾已突然成为肯尼亚的主要害虫，造成的损失约占玉米年产量的三分之一，估计约为100万吨。
