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专家 elicitation 以估计食品安全标准的相对风险,这些标准包含在加拿大孵化场的基于建立的风险评估模型中。

Expert Elicitation to Estimate the Relative Risk of Food Safety Criteria Included in the Establishment-Based Risk Assessment Model for Canadian Hatcheries.

机构信息

Canadian Food Inspection Agency, St-Hyacinthe, Canada.

Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Ottawa, Canada.

出版信息

Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2020 Nov;17(11):641-665. doi: 10.1089/fpd.2019.2784. Epub 2020 Apr 21.

DOI:10.1089/fpd.2019.2784
PMID:32315554
Abstract

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency is developing an Establishment-based Risk Assessment model for Hatcheries to allocate inspection resources according to the food safety risk associated with each hatchery falling under its jurisdiction. In a previous study, 29 factors contributing to the food safety risk of hatcheries were identified and grouped into three clusters (inherent risk, risk mitigation, and compliance) and assessment criteria were defined. The objective of the current study was to estimate the relative risk (RR) of these criteria. Two rounds of expert elicitations were conducted to allow 13 Canadian experts to estimate the RR of each criterion ( = 96) based on its potential impact on human health, with a specific focus on spp. This process also aimed to estimate the maximum increase or decrease in the overall food safety risk of a hatchery when considering multiple criteria belonging to a specific cluster and to assess the risk attribution of spp. at the hatchery and bird-type levels. Results showed that the respondent profile had no influence on the importance given to a majority of criteria. Uniformity of answers among experts improved from the first to the second round. Overall, 62.5%, 32.3%, and 5.2% of the criteria were attributed to an RR that was less than 2, between 2 and 3, and greater than 3, respectively. Mixing eggs from different supply flocks when placed into the same hatching unit, hatching multiple species, and importing eggs with unknown quality status were identified as having the highest contribution to a hatchery's inherent risk. Requiring information on the foodborne pathogen status of supplying flocks and the occurrence of regulatory enforcement actions were the most impactful risk mitigation and compliance factors, respectively. The median RR value assigned to each criterion and cluster will be used to build this new model.

摘要

加拿大食品检验局正在开发一种基于孵化场的风险评估模型,根据其管辖范围内每个孵化场与食品安全相关的风险来分配检查资源。在之前的研究中,确定了 29 个导致孵化场食品安全风险的因素,并将其分为三个集群(固有风险、风险缓解和合规性)和评估标准。本研究的目的是估计这些标准的相对风险 (RR)。进行了两轮专家征求意见,使 13 名加拿大专家根据其对人类健康的潜在影响,对每个标准 ( = 96) 的 RR 进行估计,特别关注 spp。这个过程还旨在估计考虑属于特定集群的多个标准时,孵化场整体食品安全风险的最大增加或减少,并评估 spp 在孵化场和鸟类类型层面的风险归因。结果表明,受访者概况对大多数标准的重要性没有影响。专家的答案从第一轮到第二轮的一致性有所提高。总体而言,62.5%、32.3%和 5.2%的标准归因于 RR 值小于 2、2 到 3 和大于 3 的标准。将来自不同供应群的鸡蛋混合放入同一孵化单元、孵化多个物种以及进口质量状况未知的鸡蛋被认为是孵化场固有风险的最大贡献因素。要求提供供应群食源性病原体状况的信息和发生的监管执法行动分别是最具影响力的风险缓解和合规性因素。为每个标准和集群分配的中位数 RR 值将用于构建这个新模型。

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