Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy.
Department of Environmental Sciences, Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Division, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Italy.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2020 Sep;16(5):761-772. doi: 10.1002/ieam.4280. Epub 2020 Jun 12.
We assess the relative vulnerability of the Mediterranean shoreline of Egypt (about 1000 km in length) to climate change (i.e., sea-level rise [SLR], storm surge flooding, and coastal erosion) by using a Climate-improved Coastal Vulnerability Index (CCVI). We integrate information relative to a multidimensional set of physical, geological, and socioeconomic variables, and add to the mainstream literature the consideration of both a reference and a climate change scenario, assuming the representative concentration pathway 8.5 W/m (RCP8.5) for the 21st century in the Mediterranean region. Results report that approximately 1% (~43 km²) of the mapped shoreline is classifiable as having a high or very high vulnerability, whereas approximately 80% (4652 km²) shows very low vulnerability. As expected, exposure to inundation and erosion is especially relevant in highly developed and urbanized coastal areas. Along the shoreline, while the Nile Delta region is the most prone area to coastal erosion and permanent or occasional inundations (both in the reference and in the climate scenario), results show the Western Desert area to be less vulnerable due to its geological characteristics (i.e., rocky and cliffed coasts, steeper coastal slope). The application of the CCVI to the coast of Egypt can be considered as a first screening of the hot-spot risk areas at the national scale. The results of the analysis, including vulnerability maps and indicators, can be used to support the development of climate adaptation and integrated coastal zone management strategies. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:761-772. © 2020 SETAC.
我们使用气候改良海岸脆弱性指数（CCVI）评估埃及地中海海岸线（约 1000 公里长）对气候变化（即海平面上升[SLR]、风暴潮洪水和海岸侵蚀）的相对脆弱性。我们整合了与物理、地质和社会经济变量多维数据集相关的信息，并在主流文献中增加了对参考情景和气候变化情景的考虑，假设 21 世纪地中海地区的代表性浓度路径 8.5W/m²（RCP8.5）。结果报告表明，约 1%（~43 平方公里）的海岸线可归类为高或极高脆弱性，而约 80%（4652 平方公里）显示出极低脆弱性。正如预期的那样，暴露于淹没和侵蚀的风险在高度发达和城市化的沿海地区尤为突出。在海岸线沿线，虽然尼罗河三角洲地区是最容易受到海岸侵蚀和永久性或偶尔淹没影响的地区（无论是在参考情景还是气候情景中），但由于其地质特征（即岩石和悬崖海岸、更陡峭的海岸坡度），结果表明西部沙漠地区的脆弱性较低。将 CCVI 应用于埃及海岸可以被视为在国家范围内对热点风险区域进行初步筛选。分析结果，包括脆弱性图和指标，可以用于支持制定气候适应和综合沿海区管理战略。综合环境评估与管理 2020；16：761-772。©2020 SETAC。
