Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, I-73100 Lecce, Italy; Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistic, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy.
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistic, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Jun 10;772:144650. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144650. Epub 2021 Jan 18.
Understanding how natural and human-induced drivers will contribute to rising vulnerability and risks in coastal areas requires a broader use of future projections capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics which drive changes in the different vulnerability dimensions, including the socio-demographic and economic spheres. To go beyond the traditional approaches for coastal vulnerability appraisal, a Multi-dimensional Coastal Vulnerability Index (MDim-CVI) - integrating a composite set of physical, environmental and socio-economic indicators - is proposed to rank Italian coastal provinces according to their relative vulnerability to extreme sea level scenarios, in 2050. Specifically, information on hazard-prone areas, potentially inundated by sea level rise and extreme water levels (under the RCP8.5 climate scenario) is combined with indicators of geomorphic vulnerability (e.g. elevation, distance from coastline, shoreline evolution trend) exposure, and adaptive capacity (e.g. sensible segments of the population, GDP, land use patterns). The methodology is applied to a reference timeframe, representing current climate and land use condition, and a future scenario for the year 2050, integrating both climate projections and data simulating potential evolution of the environmental and socio-economic systems. Results show that most vulnerable provinces are located in the North Adriatic, the Gargano area and other Southern parts of Italy, mostly due to the very high vulnerability scores reported by climate-related indicators (e.g. extreme sea level). The number of vulnerable provinces as well as the magnitude of vulnerability is expected to increase in the future due to the worsening of climate, environmental, and socio-economic conditions (e.g. land use variations and increase of the elderly population). These outcomes can timely inform integrated coastal zone management and support climate adaptation planning.
了解自然和人为驱动因素将如何导致沿海地区脆弱性和风险增加，需要更广泛地使用未来预测，以捕捉驱动不同脆弱性维度变化的时空动态，包括社会人口和经济领域。为了超越传统的沿海脆弱性评估方法，提出了多维沿海脆弱性指数（MDim-CVI），该指数整合了一套物理、环境和社会经济指标，用于根据意大利沿海省份在 2050 年极端海平面情景下的相对脆弱性进行排名。具体来说，将易受灾害地区的信息（海平面上升和极端水位（在 RCP8.5 气候情景下）可能淹没的地区）与地形脆弱性（例如海拔、距海岸线的距离、海岸线演化趋势）暴露和适应能力（例如敏感人口、GDP、土地利用模式）的指标相结合。该方法应用于参考时间段，代表当前气候和土地利用条件，以及 2050 年的未来情景，整合了气候预测和模拟环境和社会经济系统潜在演变的数据。结果表明，最脆弱的省份位于北亚得里亚海、加加诺地区和意大利其他南部地区，主要是由于与气候相关的指标（例如极端海平面）报告的脆弱性得分非常高。由于气候、环境和社会经济条件的恶化（例如土地利用变化和老年人口增加），未来脆弱省份的数量以及脆弱性的程度预计将会增加。这些结果可以及时为综合沿海区管理提供信息，并支持气候适应规划。
