Horiuchi S, Preston S H
Population Division, United Nations, New York, New York 10017.
Demography. 1988 Aug;25(3):429-41.
Recent developments in population mathematics have focused attention on a function that is widely available but rarely examined: the set of age-specific growth rates in a population. In particular, this set of rates is sufficient for translating the current birth rate and age-specific mortality rates into the current age distribution. This growth-rate function contains all of the pertinent features of a population's demographic history that are required to relate major demographic functions for a particular period to one another. This article presents an expression for the age-specific growth rate and uses it to derive an equation for age distribution. We show how the value of the age-specific growth rate is determined by a population's demographic past and present various sets of growth rates corresponding to stylized demographic scenarios. Several noteworthy sets of growth rates observed in human populations are discussed. Finally, we explain why age-specific growth rates make it possible to determine the age distribution solely from information on current demographic conditions.
人口中按年龄划分的增长率集合。具体而言，这组增长率足以将当前的出生率和按年龄划分的死亡率转化为当前的年龄分布。这个增长率函数包含了人口人口统计学历史的所有相关特征，这些特征是将特定时期的主要人口统计学函数相互联系起来所必需的。本文给出了按年龄划分的增长率的表达式，并利用它推导出年龄分布的方程。我们展示了按年龄划分的增长率的值是如何由人口的过去和现在的人口统计学情况以及对应于典型人口统计学情景的各种增长率集合所决定的。文中讨论了在人类群体中观察到的几组值得注意的增长率。最后，我们解释了为什么按年龄划分的增长率使得仅根据当前人口统计学状况的信息就能确定年龄分布。
