Vietnam National Space Center, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Viet Nam.
Vietnam National Space Center, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Viet Nam.
Environ Res. 2020 Jul;186:109545. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109545. Epub 2020 Apr 23.
Dengue fever has continuously been a disease burden in Vietnam during the last 20 years, particularly in the Mekong Delta region (MDR), which is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Variations in temperature and precipitation are likely to alter the incidence and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as dengue. This study focuses on assessing dengue risk via the vulnerability concept, which is composed of exposure and susceptibility using a combined approach of mapping and modelling for the MDR of Vietnam during the period between 2001 and 2016. Multisource remote sensing data from Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrophotometer (MODIS) was used for presenting climate and environment variables in mapping and modelling vulnerability. Monthly and yearly maps of vulnerability to dengue in the MDR, produced for 15-year period, aided analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns of vulnerability to dengue in the study region and were used for constructing time-series modelling of vulnerability for the following year. The results showed that there is a clear seasonal variation in the vulnerability due to variability of the climate factor and its strong dispersion across the study region, with higher vulnerability in the scattered areas of urban and mixed horticulture land and lower vulnerability in areas covered by forest and bare soil lands. The Pearson's correlation was applied to evaluate the association between dengue rates and vulnerability values aggregated at the provincial level. Reasonable linear association, with correlation coefficients of 0.41-0.63, was found in two-thirds of the provinces. The predicted vulnerabilities to dengue during 2016 were comparable with the estimated values and trends for most provinces of the MDR. Our demonstrated approach with integrated geospatial data seems to be a promising tool in supporting the public health sector in assessing potential space and time of a subsequent increase in vulnerability to dengue, particularly in the context of climate change.
登革热在过去 20 年一直是越南的疾病负担，特别是在湄公河三角洲地区（MDR），该地区是受气候变化影响最脆弱的地区之一。温度和降水的变化可能会改变登革热等虫媒传染病的发病率和分布。本研究侧重于使用制图和建模相结合的方法，通过脆弱性概念评估越南 MDR 地区 2001 年至 2016 年期间的登革热风险，该脆弱性概念由暴露和易感性组成。使用来自全球卫星降水测绘（GSMaP）和中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）的多源遥感数据来呈现气候和环境变量，以进行制图和建模脆弱性。为 15 年期间制作的 MDR 登革热脆弱性的月度和年度地图，有助于分析研究区域内登革热脆弱性的时空模式，并用于构建次年脆弱性的时间序列模型。结果表明，由于气候因素的可变性及其在研究区域内的强烈分散，脆弱性具有明显的季节性变化，城市和混合园艺土地的分散地区脆弱性较高，森林和裸土地区的脆弱性较低。应用皮尔逊相关系数评估省级汇总的登革热发病率与脆弱性值之间的相关性。在三分之二的省份中发现了合理的线性关联，相关系数为 0.41-0.63。2016 年登革热脆弱性的预测值与大多数 MDR 省份的估计值和趋势相当。我们使用集成地理空间数据的方法似乎是支持公共卫生部门评估未来登革热脆弱性增加的空间和时间的有前途的工具，特别是在气候变化的背景下。
