Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Aug 1;728:138688. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138688. Epub 2020 Apr 14.
As one of the low carbon pilot cities in China, Beijing has announced that its carbon emissions will peak in 2020. In combating with this emission target, using the green power has becoming an important strategy in Beijing. Quantifying the effect of varies driving forces (including the adoption of green power) on carbon emissions will provide more accurate policy suggestions for carbon mitigation. Using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, this study 1) explore the driving forces of carbon emissions changes in Beijing during the 2010-2017 period, with special attention to the role of green power; 2) and analysis the emission reduction potential during the 2020-2030 period based on two scenarios. Results show that the main factor increasing carbon emissions in Beijing is the economic output effect, followed by the population scale effect; while the major factor decreasing carbon emissions is the energy intensity effect, followed by energy structure and emission factor effects. Beijing, characterized by gross energy consumption, has a high proportion of electricity which is transferred from other locations. In 2015, Beijing began to import green power, which has made a significant contribution to carbon reduction. Looking ahead to the future, imported green power is likely to become the most cost-effective means of reducing emissions. By harnessing green power, Beijing has the potential to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 30 million tons from 2020 to 2030, with an additional cost of about only 5 yuan/ton.
作为中国的低碳试点城市之一，北京宣布其碳排放将在 2020 年达到峰值。为了应对这一排放目标，使用绿色电力已成为北京的重要战略。量化各种驱动因素（包括采用绿色电力）对碳排放的影响，将为碳减排提供更准确的政策建议。本研究采用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）方法，1）探讨了 2010-2017 年期间北京碳排放变化的驱动因素，特别关注绿色电力的作用；2）并基于两种情景分析了 2020-2030 年的减排潜力。结果表明，北京碳排放增加的主要因素是经济产出效应，其次是人口规模效应；而降低碳排放的主要因素是能源强度效应，其次是能源结构和排放因子效应。北京的特点是总能源消耗，其中电力有很大一部分是从其他地方转移过来的。2015 年，北京开始进口绿色电力，这对减排做出了重大贡献。展望未来，进口绿色电力可能成为减排最具成本效益的手段。通过利用绿色电力，北京有望在 2020 年至 2030 年期间减少约 3000 万吨的碳排放，额外成本约为每吨 5 元。
