Estoque Ronald C, Ooba Makoto, Togawa Takuya, Hijioka Yasuaki
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
Fukushima Branch, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 10-2 Fukasaku, Miharu, Tamura District, Fukushima, 963-7700, Japan.
Ambio. 2020 Dec;49(12):1972-1981. doi: 10.1007/s13280-020-01338-4. Epub 2020 May 6.
The conceptualization of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework represented a major leap in scenario development in the context of global environmental change and sustainability, providing significant advances from the previous scenario frameworks-especially the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. It is highly likely that the SSP concept, along with its scenario narratives and their respective results, including land-use change projections, will play a substantial role in the forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report by the IPCC. Here, we offer some insights that could make the SSPs' projected future changes in global land use more comprehensive and also help improve the interpretability of such projections. For example, instead of focusing on the quantity of each land-use class at various time points which results only in a net change when change is detected between time points, we recommend that the projected gross gains and gross losses in each land-use class across all scenarios should also be considered. Overall, the insights presented could also help pave the way for stronger collaboration between the SSP-climate science community and the land system science community; such collaboration is much needed in addressing the challenges of global environmental change towards a climate-resilient sustainable development pathway.
共享社会经济路径（SSPs）框架的概念化代表了全球环境变化与可持续发展背景下情景发展的重大飞跃，相较于之前的情景框架——尤其是政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的排放情景特别报告，有了显著进步。很有可能，SSP概念及其情景叙述以及包括土地利用变化预测在内的各自结果，将在IPCC即将发布的第六次评估报告中发挥重要作用。在此，我们提供一些见解，这些见解可以使SSPs预测的全球土地利用未来变化更加全面，也有助于提高此类预测的可解释性。例如，我们建议不应仅关注各时间点每种土地利用类型的数量（这种方法仅在检测到时间点之间的变化时才会产生净变化），还应考虑所有情景下每种土地利用类型的预计总增益和总损失。总体而言，所提出的见解也有助于为SSP - 气候科学界与土地系统科学界之间加强合作铺平道路；在应对全球环境变化挑战以实现气候适应型可持续发展路径方面，这种合作非常必要。
