Zhang Fei-Xue, Li Hong-Li, Wan Ji-Zhong
The Key Laboratory of Ecological Protection in the Yellow River Basin of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, School of Ecology and Nature Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China.
Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Processes and Ecological Regulation, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu China.
Ecol Evol. 2024 Oct 8;14(10):e70394. doi: 10.1002/ece3.70394. eCollection 2024 Oct.
The invasion of alien woody species may have broad ecological, economic, and health impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change. Previous studies showed that disrupting the biodiversity conservation mechanisms in protected areas can seriously threaten natural ecosystems and the protection of rare and endangered species in such protected areas. However, there is currently no standard for evaluating the invasion risk of woody plants under climate change when establishing national parks in China. Therefore, we used a species distribution model to evaluate the invasion risk of 250 invasive alien woody species in potential national park sites in Xinjiang under climate change. The results indicated that the probability of forest invasion in the potential Altai Kanas National Park was determined to be significantly higher than that of the average level in Xinjiang nature reserves, both under current and future climate conditions. At the same time, the probability of invasive woody species invading coniferous forests, broad-leaved forests, and grassland ecosystems is higher in the Altai Kanas and Tianshan potential national parks. We found that , , and in potential parks in Xinjiang have higher invasion potential and thus require heightened vigilance to stop their spread. This study contributes to the monitoring and management of national parks and provides an actionable foundation for protecting ecosystem functions and minimizing the potential risk of invasive alien species under climate change.
外来木本物种的入侵可能会在气候变化背景下对生态系统和生物多样性产生广泛的生态、经济和健康影响。先前的研究表明，破坏保护区内的生物多样性保护机制会严重威胁自然生态系统以及此类保护区内珍稀濒危物种的保护。然而，目前在中国建立国家公园时，尚无评估气候变化下木本植物入侵风险的标准。因此，我们使用物种分布模型评估了气候变化下新疆潜在国家公园地点250种外来入侵木本物种的入侵风险。结果表明，无论是在当前还是未来气候条件下，阿尔泰山喀纳斯潜在国家公园森林被入侵的概率均显著高于新疆自然保护区的平均水平。同时，在阿尔泰山喀纳斯和天山潜在国家公园中，入侵木本物种入侵针叶林、阔叶林和草原生态系统的概率更高。我们发现，新疆潜在公园中的 、 和 具有较高的入侵潜力，因此需要提高警惕以阻止它们的扩散。本研究有助于国家公园的监测与管理，并为保护生态系统功能以及在气候变化下将外来入侵物种的潜在风险降至最低提供了可操作的基础。
