Alizadeh Mohammad Reza, Adamowski Jan, Inam Azhar
Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, St. Anne De Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada.
Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, St. Anne De Bellevue, QC, H9X 3V9, Canada.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jun 1;823:153660. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153660. Epub 2022 Feb 3.
The assessment of climate change impacts requires downscaled climate projections and context-specific socioeconomic scenarios. The development of practical climate change adaptation for environmental sustainability at regional and local scales is predicated on a strong understanding of future socio-economic dynamics under a range of potential climate projections. We have addressed this need using integrated assessment of a localized hybrid Shared Socio-economic Pathway - Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) framework, through an interdisciplinary and participatory storyline development process that integrates bottom-up local expert-stakeholder knowledge with top-down insights from global SSPs. We use the global SSPs (SSP1 to SSP5) as boundary conditions in conjunction with climate change pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) to create localized SSP narratives in an iterative participatory process, using a storytelling method. By using an integrated socio-economic and environmental system dynamics model developed in collaboration with local stakeholders, we explore the potential impacts of plausible local SSP-RCP narratives and quantify important socio-environmental vulnerabilities of a human-water system (e.g., crop yields, farm income, water security and groundwater depletion) by the mid-century period (i.e., by 2050). The framework is developed to inform climate adaptation for Pakistan's Rechna Doab region, which serves as a representative case of a multi-stakeholder coupled human-water system operating in a developing country. Our results suggest that even under limited socio-economic improvements (e.g., technology, policies, institutions, environmental awareness) water security would be expected to decline and environmental degradation (e.g., groundwater depletion) to worsen. Under RCP 4.5, the average projected increase in water demand in 2030 will be about 7.32% for all SSP scenario narratives, and 10.82% by mid-century. Groundwater use varies significantly across SSPs which results in an average increase of about 29.06% for all SSPs. The proposed framework facilitates the development of future adaptation policies that should consider regional and local planning as well as socio-economic conditions.
气候变化影响评估需要降尺度的气候预测和特定背景的社会经济情景。在区域和地方尺度上制定切实可行的气候变化适应措施以实现环境可持续性，其前提是要深入了解一系列潜在气候预测下未来的社会经济动态。我们通过对本地化的混合共享社会经济路径 - 代表性浓度路径（SSP - RCP）框架进行综合评估来满足这一需求，该过程通过跨学科和参与式的故事情节发展过程，将自下而上的地方专家 - 利益相关者知识与全球SSP的自上而下的见解相结合。我们将全球SSP（SSP1至SSP5）用作边界条件，并结合气候变化路径（RCP4.5、RCP8.5），通过一种讲故事的方法，在迭代参与过程中创建本地化的SSP叙述。通过使用与当地利益相关者合作开发的综合社会经济和环境系统动力学模型，我们探索了合理的本地SSP - RCP叙述的潜在影响，并量化了到本世纪中叶（即到2050年）人类 - 水系统的重要社会环境脆弱性（例如作物产量、农业收入、水安全和地下水枯竭）。该框架旨在为巴基斯坦雷奇纳多布地区的气候适应提供信息，该地区是发展中国家多利益相关者耦合人类 - 水系统的一个典型案例。我们的结果表明，即使在社会经济改善有限的情况下（例如技术、政策、机构、环境意识），预计水安全仍将下降，环境退化（例如地下水枯竭）将加剧。在RCP 4.5情景下，到2030年所有SSP情景叙述的预计平均需水量增加约7.32%，到本世纪中叶将增加10.82%。不同SSP情景下的地下水使用差异显著，所有SSP情景下的平均增加约29.06%。所提出的框架有助于制定未来的适应政策，这些政策应考虑区域和地方规划以及社会经济状况。
