Wu Z Y
National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Jul 10;41(7):986-989. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200427-00657.
Novel coronavirus spreads very fast and is not easy to control. It has spread over 200 countries or territories. China has taken action to implement containment strategies, including active COVID-19 case finding, tracing, and 14-day quarantine of close contacts, and home isolation of 1.39 billion of people countrywide for at least 2 weeks, etc. The combination of these strategies has brought the epidemic under control in China. The United Kingdom had deliberately not implemented containment measures for a while, instead opting to allow herd immunity strategy to develop over time. This is a "do-nothing" strategy whereby the virus is allowed to move through communities naturally until certain proportion of people has been infected, and the epidemic ends without intervention. The author assesses containment strategies versus this herd immunity strategy in real-world application to the COVID-19 epidemic. The author suggests an innovative strategy to balance controlling the epidemic and preventing impediment to economic and social development.
新型冠状病毒传播速度极快且不易控制。它已蔓延至200多个国家或地区。中国已采取行动实施防控策略,包括积极发现新冠肺炎病例、追踪密切接触者并进行14天隔离,以及全国13.9亿人居家隔离至少两周等。这些策略的综合运用使中国的疫情得到了控制。英国曾一度蓄意不实施防控措施,而是选择让群体免疫策略随时间发展。这是一种“不作为”策略,即任由病毒在社区自然传播,直到一定比例的人被感染,疫情在无干预的情况下结束。作者评估了防控策略与这种群体免疫策略在新冠肺炎疫情实际应用中的情况。作者提出了一种创新策略,以平衡控制疫情与防止对经济和社会发展造成阻碍。