Department of Natural Resources Sciences, McGill University, 21111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC H9X 3V9, Canada.
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Aug 20;731:138725. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138725. Epub 2020 May 4.
The spatio-temporal complexity of groundwater storage change is a result of interconnected impact of socio-ecological factors. Previous research indicates several socio-ecological factors (e.g. human extraction, land cover change, and climate change) that may result in groundwater depletion. However, we seldom have empirical studies that provide spatio-temporally explicit information on the main drivers among these factors that determine regional groundwater change. This research explored a spatio-temporally explicit understanding on the socio-ecological determinants on the changes of groundwater storage in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of north China. We selected this basin because the spatial heterogeneity of this basin complicates the relationship between socio-ecological factors and groundwater resources, whose changes would in turn fundamentally affect the socio-ecological system in the YRB. We collected annual (time resolution) data between 2003 and 2016 (time scope) with 1° × 1° grid (space resolution) about 18 social-ecological factors that might affect groundwater storage change in the YRB (space scope). Using this data and groundwater storage information from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment database, we determined best predictors, highly-performed predictive models, and dominant drivers for temporal and spatial changes of groundwater storage. Temporal changes of groundwater in the YRB between 2003 and 2016 were mainly contributed by anthropogenic factors, including population density, plantation, and irrigation water consumption over time. The spatial groundwater change across the YRB was determined by both the geographical location (e.g. indicated by longitude) and urbanization level (e.g. indicated by the domestic and industrial water consumption). The knowledge about socio-ecological determinants on groundwater dynamics in space and time in the YRB can help determine main levers to control regional change of groundwater storage and assist in a sustainable use of groundwater resource.
地下水存储变化的时空复杂性是社会-生态因素相互影响的结果。先前的研究表明，一些社会-生态因素（如人类开采、土地覆盖变化和气候变化）可能导致地下水枯竭。然而，我们很少有实证研究提供关于这些因素中决定区域地下水变化的主要驱动因素的时空明确信息。本研究探索了对中国北方黄河流域（YRB）地下水存储变化的社会-生态决定因素的时空明确理解。我们选择这个流域是因为这个流域的空间异质性使社会-生态因素与地下水资源之间的关系复杂化，而这些变化反过来又会从根本上影响 YRB 的社会-生态系统。我们收集了 2003 年至 2016 年期间每年（时间分辨率）、以 1°×1°网格（空间分辨率）为范围（空间范围）的约 18 个可能影响 YRB 地下水存储变化的社会-生态因素的年度数据（时间范围）。利用这些数据和重力恢复与气候实验数据库中的地下水存储信息，我们确定了最佳预测因子、表现良好的预测模型以及地下水存储时空变化的主要驱动因素。2003 年至 2016 年间，YRB 地下水的时间变化主要由人为因素引起，包括人口密度、种植园和灌溉用水量随时间的变化。YRB 地下水的空间变化由地理位置（例如经度表示）和城市化水平（例如，国内和工业用水量表示）共同决定。关于 YRB 地下水动态的社会-生态决定因素的知识可以帮助确定控制地下水储量区域变化的主要杠杆，并有助于地下水资源的可持续利用。
