Uncovering leveraging and hindering factors in socio-ecological interactions: Agricultural production in the Yellow River Basin as an example.

Agricultural production and sustainable human livelihoods in large river basins are threatened by climate change, human activities, and resource constraints. However, due to the complexity of socio-ecological interactions and agricultural sustainability, current studies are still limited by a priori knowledge and systematic analyses, as well as by the lack of quantification and identification of key factors and valuable pathway structures for agricultural production activities. Here, we combined observation-based causal inference and network analysis to quantify and assess the complex interactions in agricultural production in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) based on data from 12 factors relevant to agriculture over 40 years. We quantitatively assessed the leveraging and hindering roles of the factors in the interacting network system and provided managers with optimization priorities and possible causal pathways to achieve sustainable agriculture in the basin. For example, the fruit yield and income of rural households were identified as leveraging factors that positively affect the agricultural economy. Groundwater was seen as a hindering factor in dampening the negative impacts of the system, highlighting the importance of preventing groundwater depletion. Moreover, the findings suggest that spatially diverse causal interaction structures exist in the YRB and have shaped a variety of distinctive agricultural development modes. Our research ideas and results highlight both systemic considerations and the amplifying or dampening role of factors in interaction pathways, providing valuable quantitative insights into the management and intervention of sustainable agriculture in large river basins. Owing to replaceable and extensible network models, the methodology has the potential to be utilized in a variety of study areas and topics with complex socio-ecological interactions.