Li Yuqiang, Zhang Guangfeng, Song Xiangping, Zhao Lilan, Güngör Cenap, Wang Dan, Liu Wenxue, Huang Yan, Tan Fengbo
Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China.
Department of General Visceral and Thoracic Surgery, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
Gastroenterol Res Pract. 2020 Jan 27;2020:8493707. doi: 10.1155/2020/8493707. eCollection 2020.
Assess the risk of synchronous metastasis and establish a nomogram in patients with GISTs.
Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database (2004-2014) was accessed. With the logistic regression model as the basis, a nomogram was constructed.
7,256 target patients were contained in our study. The nomogram discrimination for mGIST prediction revealed that tumor size contributed most to synchronous metastasis, followed by lymph nodes, extension, pathologic grade, tumor location, and mitotic count. -index values of predictions were 0.821 (95% CI, 0.805-0.836) and 0.815 (95% CI, 0.800-0.831), and Brier score were 0.109 and 0.112 in training and validation group, respectively. The value of area under the ROCs were 0.813 ( < 0.001) in the primary cohort and 0.819 ( < 0.001) in the validation cohort. Through the calibration curves (as seen in the figures), nomogram prediction proved to have excellent agreement with actual metastatic diseases.
A new nomogram was created that can evaluate synchronous metastatic diseases in patients with GISTs.
评估胃肠道间质瘤（GISTs）患者同时性转移的风险并建立列线图。
访问监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库（2004 - 2014年）。以逻辑回归模型为基础构建列线图。
我们的研究纳入了7256例目标患者。列线图对转移性GIST（mGIST）预测的判别显示，肿瘤大小对同时性转移的贡献最大，其次是淋巴结、肿瘤侵犯范围、病理分级、肿瘤位置和核分裂象计数。训练组和验证组预测的C-index值分别为0.821（95%CI，0.805 - 0.836）和0.815（95%CI，0.800 - 0.831），Brier评分分别为0.109和0.112。主要队列中ROC曲线下面积值为0.813（P < 0.001），验证队列中为0.819（P < 0.001）。通过校准曲线（如图所示），列线图预测与实际转移疾病具有良好的一致性。
创建了一种新的列线图，可评估GISTs患者的同时性转移疾病。
