Department of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, No 277 Yanta West Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, People's Republic of China.
BMC Cancer. 2021 May 17;21(1):565. doi: 10.1186/s12885-021-08313-6.
BACKGROUND: Metaplastic breast cancer (MBC) is a rare subtype of breast cancer, and generally associated with poor outcomes. Lymph nodes metastasis (LNM) is confirmed as a critical independent prognostic factor and determine the optimal treatment strategies in MBC patients. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the possibility of preoperative regional LNM in MBC patients. METHODS: MBC patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2016 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included and stochastically divided into a training set and validation set at a ratio of 7:3. The risk variables of regional LNM in the training set were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. And then we integrated those risk factors to construct the nomogram. The prediction nomogram was further verified in the verification set. The discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the nomogram were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. RESULTS: A total of 2205 female MBC patients were included in the study. Among the 2205 patients, 24.8% (546/2205) had positive regional lymph nodes. The nomogram for predicting the risk of regional LNM contained predictors of grade, estrogen receptor (ER) status and tumor size, with AUC of 0.683 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.653-0.713) and 0.667 (95% CI: 0.621-0.712) in the training and validation sets, respectively. Calibration plots showed perfect agreement between actual and predicted regional LNM risks. At the same time, DCA of the nomogram demonstrated good clinical utilities. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram established in this study showed excellent prediction ability, and could be used to preoperatively estimate the regional LNM risk in MBC.
背景:化生性乳腺癌(MBC)是一种罕见的乳腺癌亚型,通常与不良预后相关。淋巴结转移(LNM)被证实为关键的独立预后因素,并决定 MBC 患者的最佳治疗策略。我们旨在开发和验证一种列线图,以预测 MBC 患者术前区域 LNM 的可能性。
方法:纳入 1990 年至 2016 年在监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中诊断为 MBC 的患者,并按 7:3 的比例随机分为训练集和验证集。通过单因素和多因素逻辑回归分析确定训练集中区域 LNM 的风险变量。然后,我们将这些风险因素整合到列线图中。在验证集中进一步验证预测列线图。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)、校准图和决策曲线分析(DCA)评估列线图的预测、校准和临床实用性。
结果:共纳入 2205 例女性 MBC 患者。在 2205 例患者中,24.8%(546/2205)存在区域淋巴结阳性。预测区域 LNM 风险的列线图包含分级、雌激素受体(ER)状态和肿瘤大小的预测因子,在训练集和验证集中 AUC 分别为 0.683(95%CI:0.653-0.713)和 0.667(95%CI:0.621-0.712)。校准图显示实际和预测区域 LNM 风险之间具有完美的一致性。同时,列线图的 DCA 表明具有良好的临床实用性。
结论:本研究建立的列线图具有优异的预测能力,可用于术前评估 MBC 患者的区域 LNM 风险。
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