Sonoma Technology, Inc ., Petaluma, CA, USA.
J Air Waste Manag Assoc. 2020 Nov;70(11):1101-1120. doi: 10.1080/10962247.2020.1764879.
Albuquerque/Bernalillo County, New Mexico, is currently in attainment of the 2015 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (70 ppb), but its ozone design values have increased in recent years. Air quality and source apportionment modeling with the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) was conducted for Albuquerque/Bernalillo County to develop a refined understanding of ozone source apportionment in the region, estimate ozone concentrations in the year 2025 based on projected changes in anthropogenic emissions, and evaluate the sensitivity of future ozone concentrations to various changes in local and non-local emissions. The study focused on two ozone episodes during June and July 2017 when 8-hr average ozone concentrations were greater than 70 ppb. Based on the modeling results, ozone during the June 2017 episode was found to be driven largely by contributions from non-local and regional emissions, whereas ozone during the July 2017 episode was driven more strongly by local emissions from within Albuquerque/Bernalillo County. On high ozone days, anthropogenic emissions from within Albuquerque/Bernalillo County contributed between 8% and 19% (6-14 ppb) of total ozone. Half of this local ozone contribution was from on-road mobile sources. Fire emissions contributed as much as 2 ppb of ozone on a given day. Contributions from large power plants in New Mexico were as large as 1 ppb on a given day but less than 0.5 ppb on most days. Modeled ozone concentrations in Albuquerque/Bernalillo County were also sensitive to emissions from oil and gas emissions in New Mexico. If projected emission reductions by 2025 materialize, these reductions could reduce future peak 8-hr average ozone concentrations by as much as 3-4% compared to 2017 values. The results of this study have important implications for air quality management in Albuquerque/Bernalillo County. Ozone in Albuquerque/Bernalillo County is the result of local and non-local emissions, is impacted by wildfires, and is sensitive to statewide oil and gas emissions. The magnitude of modeled contributions from anthropogenic emissions within Albuquerque/Bernalillo County is strongly influenced by meteorological conditions, transport pathways, and the presence of wildfire. This modeling is important for understanding the potential effectiveness of local emission controls in Albuquerque/Bernalillo County, and can serve as a basis for testing future regional and local emission control options.
新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基/贝尔纳利洛县目前达到了 2015 年国家环境空气质量标准（NAAQS）的臭氧（70ppb）标准，但近年来其臭氧设计值有所增加。使用综合空气质量模型扩展版（CAMx）对阿尔伯克基/贝尔纳利洛县进行空气质量和源分配建模，以深入了解该地区臭氧的源分配情况，根据人为排放的预计变化估算 2025 年的臭氧浓度，并评估未来臭氧浓度对当地和非当地排放的各种变化的敏感性。该研究重点关注 2017 年 6 月和 7 月的两个臭氧事件，当时 8 小时平均臭氧浓度大于 70ppb。根据建模结果，发现 2017 年 6 月的臭氧事件主要由非本地和区域排放的贡献驱动，而 2017 年 7 月的臭氧事件则主要由阿尔伯克基/贝尔纳利洛县内部的本地排放驱动。在臭氧高发日，来自阿尔伯克基/贝尔纳利洛县内部的人为排放贡献了总臭氧的 8%至 19%（6-14ppb）。本地臭氧贡献的一半来自道路移动源。在某一天，火灾排放的臭氧量高达 2ppb。新墨西哥州大型电厂的排放量在某一天可达 1ppb，但在大多数日子里不到 0.5ppb。在阿尔伯克基/贝尔纳利洛县模拟的臭氧浓度也对新墨西哥州的石油和天然气排放敏感。如果 2025 年的预测减排实现，与 2017 年相比，这些减排可能使未来的峰值 8 小时平均臭氧浓度降低 3-4%。本研究的结果对阿尔伯克基/贝尔纳利洛县的空气质量管理具有重要意义。阿尔伯克基/贝尔纳利洛县的臭氧是本地和非本地排放的结果，受野火影响，对全州的石油和天然气排放敏感。来自阿尔伯克基/贝尔纳利洛县内部人为排放的模拟贡献的大小强烈受到气象条件、传输途径和野火的影响。这种建模对于了解当地排放控制在阿尔伯克基/贝尔纳利洛县的潜在有效性非常重要，并可以作为测试未来区域和地方排放控制选项的基础。
