Jiang Fuliang, Wu Haonan, Liu Yong, Chen Guan, Guo Jintao, Wang Zhe
School of Resource & Environment and Safety Engineering, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan 421001, People's Republic of China.
Hunan Province Engineering Technology Research Center of Uranium Tailings Treatment Technology, Hengyang, Hunan 421001, People's Republic of China.
R Soc Open Sci. 2020 Apr 8;7(4):191566. doi: 10.1098/rsos.191566. eCollection 2020 Apr.
The main purposes of this study are to analyse the evaluation of tailings dam stability under multiple factors and prevent accidents more effectively by proposing a composite risk analysis model. The evaluation model combining the TOPSIS model and bow tie model is presented in this paper. Firstly, a new formula was adopted to calculate the integrated weights based on the subjective and objective weights and the theory of the TOPSIS model was introduced. Secondly, taking a uranium tailings reservoir in south China as an example, the index values and constant weights of the 10 dams are determined according to eight aspects of accumulating dam crest elevation, dam slope, mechanical properties, seepage capacity, topographical conditions, flood control capacity, rainstorm resistance capacity and earthquake resistance capacity. Thirdly, the fitting degree between the stability and ideal solution of each dam is calculated by using the TOPSIS model. The stability fitting degree of the 10 dams is 76%, 93%, 82%, 90%, 66%, 79%, 85%, 96%, 32%, 89% in sequence. This result shows that among the 10 dams, the 9 dam ranks the lowest in stability. The actual results are in good consistency with those calculated by the TOPSIS model, which can provide a scientific and reliable new idea for the safety of other multi-index comprehensive evaluations. It is worth mentioning that it can still maintain high accuracy of dam stability evaluation under multiple indexes and multiple dams. Also, the comprehensive evaluation model proposed in this paper can more effectively reflect the subtle differences between similar evaluation objects. Fourthly, safety barriers from both the cause of the accident and the consequences was established by using the bow tie model to block the path of the accident, and to propose safety measures to make the evaluation system more complete.
本研究的主要目的是分析多因素作用下尾矿坝稳定性的评价，并通过提出一种复合风险分析模型更有效地预防事故。本文提出了一种结合TOPSIS模型和蝴蝶结模型的评价模型。首先，采用新公式基于主观权重和客观权重计算综合权重，并引入TOPSIS模型理论。其次，以华南某铀尾矿库为例，从堆积坝顶高程、坝坡、力学性质、渗流能力、地形条件、防洪能力、抗暴雨能力和抗震能力八个方面确定了10座尾矿坝的指标值和固定权重。第三，利用TOPSIS模型计算各尾矿坝稳定性与理想解的贴近度。10座尾矿坝的稳定性贴近度依次为76%、93%、82%、90%、66%、79%、85%、96%、32%、89%。结果表明，在这10座尾矿坝中，第9座尾矿坝的稳定性排名最低。实际结果与TOPSIS模型计算结果吻合良好，可为其他多指标综合评价的安全性提供科学可靠的新思路。值得一提的是，在多指标多尾矿坝情况下，它仍能保持较高的尾矿坝稳定性评价精度。此外，本文提出的综合评价模型能更有效地反映相似评价对象之间的细微差异。第四，利用蝴蝶结模型从事故原因和后果两方面建立安全屏障，阻断事故路径，并提出安全措施，使评价体系更加完善。
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