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辐射风险与不确定性:支持沟通和知情决策的范围综述。

Radiation risks and uncertainties: a scoping review to support communication and informed decision-making.

机构信息

Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK CEN), Mol, Belgium. University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.

出版信息

J Radiol Prot. 2020 Jun;40(2):612-632. doi: 10.1088/1361-6498/ab885f. Epub 2020 May 28.

DOI:10.1088/1361-6498/ab885f
PMID:32463798
Abstract

Although radiation protection is challenged by many uncertainties, there is no systematic study investigating the definitions and types of these uncertainties. To address this gap, in this paper we offer a scoping review to comprehensively analyse, for the first time, peer-reviewed scientific articles (n = 33) related to uncertainties in the following radiation exposure situations: nuclear emergencies, decommissioning of nuclear/radiological installations and long-term radiological exposure situations (e.g. naturally occurring radioactive materials). The results suggest that firstly, there is no agreement regarding definitions of uncertainty, which is mainly defined based on its sources, types or categories rather than by its meaning. Secondly, different actors are faced with different types of uncertainties. Uncertainties of the scientific community are mostly data and methodology-driven (e.g. dose-response relationships), those of the decision-makers are related to the likely consequences of decision options and public reactions, while laypeople's uncertainties are mainly related to the trustworthiness of experts or the emotional potential of specific risk exposures. Furthermore, the majority of articles focus on the uncertainties of the scientific community, while those of the information receivers (i.e. decision-makers and laypeople) receive much less consideration. Finally, there was no difference in types of uncertainties across the different risk-related study areas analysed (radiation versus other risks). Based on these findings, we provide some preliminary recommendations regarding research on uncertainty related to radiation protection, as well as communication practices.

摘要

尽管辐射防护面临着许多不确定性的挑战,但目前还没有系统的研究来调查这些不确定性的定义和类型。为了弥补这一空白,在本文中,我们进行了范围性综述,首次全面分析了与以下辐射暴露情况相关的不确定性的同行评议科学文章(n=33):核紧急情况、核/放射性装置退役和长期放射性暴露情况(例如,天然放射性物质)。结果表明,首先,对于不确定性的定义没有达成一致意见,主要是根据其来源、类型或类别来定义,而不是根据其含义来定义。其次,不同的行为者面临着不同类型的不确定性。科学界的不确定性主要是由数据和方法驱动的(例如剂量-反应关系),决策者的不确定性与决策选项的可能后果和公众反应有关,而普通民众的不确定性主要与专家的可信度或特定风险暴露的情感潜力有关。此外,大多数文章都集中在科学界的不确定性上,而对信息接收者(即决策者和普通民众)的不确定性考虑较少。最后,在分析的不同与风险相关的研究领域中,不确定性的类型没有差异(辐射与其他风险)。基于这些发现,我们就辐射防护相关不确定性的研究以及沟通实践提供了一些初步建议。

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