School of Information Technology and Network Security, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing, China.
School of Information Technology and Network Security, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jul 10;725:138190. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138190. Epub 2020 Mar 25.
Previous studies suggest that climate variability and change impact both violent and property crimes. To investigate the mechanism, time series of crime rates (crime incidents per million people) and climate variables (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and haze) are decomposed into three components- long-term trends, seasonality and daily variations (or "noise"). Based on a 12-year dataset of daily crime (robbery, minimal violent robbery (MVR), assault, rape and homicide) numbers in Beijing, China, the correlation between climate variability and crime rate is examined for each component. The results show that in terms of seasonality, strong positive relations are observed for temperature-to-MVR, temperature-to-assault, temperature-to-rape, and relative-humidity-to-MVR but negative relations for haze-to-MVR, haze-to-assault, and haze-to-rape, which can be explained by Routine Activity Theory. In terms of daily variations, temperature, rainfall and haze are key factors. The correlations are all positive for temperature-to-assault, temperature-to-rape, temperature-to-homicide, rainfall-to-MVR, rainfall-to-robbery and rainfall-to-homicide. However, the relations between haze and crimes are more complicated. Specifically, the correlations are negative for haze-to-MVR and haze-to-robbery, but positive for haze-to-homicide, which can be interpreted by Crime Pattern Theory and also influenced by offenders' bounded rationality.
先前的研究表明，气候多变性和变化对暴力犯罪和财产犯罪都有影响。为了探究其中的机制，犯罪率（每百万人犯罪事件数）和气候变量（温度、相对湿度、降雨量、风速和雾霾）的时间序列被分解为三个组成部分——长期趋势、季节性和日变化（或“噪声”）。基于中国北京的 12 年日犯罪数据（抢劫、轻微暴力抢劫（MVR）、攻击、强奸和杀人），本文检验了气候变异性与犯罪率之间的相关性。结果表明，就季节性而言，温度与 MVR、温度与攻击、温度与强奸、相对湿度与 MVR 之间存在强烈的正相关关系，而雾霾与 MVR、雾霾与攻击、雾霾与强奸之间则存在负相关关系，这可以用日常活动理论来解释。就日变化而言，温度、降雨量和雾霾是关键因素。温度与攻击、温度与强奸、温度与杀人、降雨量与 MVR、降雨量与抢劫、降雨量与杀人之间的相关性均为正相关。然而，雾霾与犯罪之间的关系更为复杂。具体来说，雾霾与 MVR 和雾霾与抢劫之间的相关性为负，但雾霾与杀人之间的相关性为正，这可以用犯罪模式理论来解释，也受到犯罪者有限理性的影响。
